Are We in Recession or on the Cusp of a Recession?

This looks like it was written by MANGA AI.

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He said “flooding” because anyone can lie to him.

You thinking Russian bot?

Why so much anxiety and panic ?

Relax. It will be ok.

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Lying angers most people

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My wife is in a teachers union. She is part of the negotiating team.

In my state, teachers must renegotiate their contract every single year. Additionally, they must work without a contract, ever single year, until that new contract is ratified, and then they get back pay for any pay increase they receive.

Every single year. By law.

A few years ago, the Superintendent basically committed a state crime by falsify financial data they gave to the union. My wife and her peers uncovered this deceit which lead to the Superintendent being asked to resign by the board with a nice six figure golden parachute. That year, it took months of failed negotiation, followed by mandatory 3rd party arbitration to resolve the contract.

During that acrimonious time, numerous teachers resigned and parents actively protested outside of various school board meetings.

Results of all that fighting and back and forth was to increase the base pay for teachers to $40k a year. That was 2021.

Fast forward to this year, my wife and her team resolved her contract in TWO meetings with a 11% pay increase. They no longer have an adversarial relationship with the board/Superintendent.

I used to be in the same boat in thinking that unions are dumb. Then, I had some direct experience with just how critical they are in some professions.

Perhaps you are open to having your opinion changed if you are willing to expand your experience.

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It is a lot of professions. It clears up matters for management on a wholesale basis.

Don’t hold your breath. Opinions are not all equal. Some are born of not having thoughts that are worth anything at all.

If you are serious about wanting to stop illegal immigration across the southern border then you should be advocating putting farmers, ranchers, and most of the rest of the agriculture industry who are hiring the undocumented in jail. End of problem.

The simple fact is that most red states and counties are dependent on the undocumented for cheap labor. The problem isn’t with sanctuary cities. The problem is with farmers and ranchers. If you don’t address the root cause (Americans hiring the undocumented) the problem will never go away.

Strangely enough, I have yet to meet an anti-immigrant conservative who is willing to pay substantially more for agricultural products, housing, housekeeping, hotels, restaurants, roofing, landscaping, etc as the price to eliminate the undocumented worker problem.

It is all just hot air and posturing.

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Very sound and practical suggestion.

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Do you have a source for that claim? I’ve searched for “Where do undocumented workers work” and haven’t found anything that breaks it out by industry. One site did mention hospitality and service industries having a high number in UW’s, but it didn’t list numbers or percentages.

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Rural, suburbs, and cities of all sorts hire as much as labor as possible. Plenty of illegals are hired across the country.

We need that labor.

We also need to control it to raise our standard of living. Let in too many and we suffer. Let in too few and nothing gets done.

Human demands are endless. We have the most financial power from the FED and the US government. If supply is not close to demand we will have inflation. To some extent, we need illegals for their productivity. Without it we won’t come close enough to meeting our consumption demands.

According to the USDA, about 40%-50% of crop farm workers (those doing the actual picking) are undocumented. USDA ERS - Farm Labor

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See the green bar. Eliminate those and who will pick those crops?

As for other industries:

The University of Michigan makes the following statement about construction workers:

…63 percent of New York City’s construction workforce are immigrants, and it is estimated that 40 percent of those workers are undocumented. This figure is similar to the entire state of Texas’ construction workforce where half of the workers (an estimated 400,000) are undocumented.… The perils of Undocumented Construction Workers in the United States - DEITABASE

Anyone else see the hypocrisy in Texas of wanting to construct a wall when half its construction force is undocumented?

Table 2 in the below pdf link probably provides more info than you want but it gives a pretty detailed breakdown of undocumented workers by industry for 2020. For example, it is estimated that over 800,000 undocumented workers are employed in American restaurants. It also shows how much the American economy is dependent on foreign-born workers, legal or not.

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Apropos of nothing else in this thread, the continuing strength of the economy - the growth rate, the unemployment rate, the new job creation statistics demonstrate how disconnected the conventional wisdom (of some people) seems to be from reality.

No, we are not in a recession. No, we are not on the cusp of a recession. Yes, this is about as strong as the economy gets, particularly considering we’re coming out of a period of Fed induced high interest rates designed to cool the economy!

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This is where to invest. The factories are being built.

The ISM is down and out. You know? Buy low, sell high? An old friend.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/10/02/ism-manufacturing-index-stays-september-2024

The fastest way to get to stagflation (slowing economic growth with rising inflation) is to close the southern border and deport all the undocumented workers. Let’s see what happens to consumer prices when 10% of workers who make the lowest wages are eliminated.

How high will farm wages have to rise for anyone here to go out to the California central valley and pick cabbages?

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People on this board are tripping over each other to highlight benefits of illegal immigration. It must be terrific ! It solves everything.

Why does the US even need borders or legal immigration ?

Demagogues. Americans will vote on this central issue in a few weeks.

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Ask farmers how their politicians’ “experiment” banning migrants turned out.

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You’re going to see problems for you out of Texas.

You are an excitable little person aren’t you? Slow down and take a deep breath. You can do this.

Now tell everyone why the last border bill was shot down and voted against by a certain Senator running on this issue?

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And Florida, Lol. We are going to see some real consequences from these people on the agriculture industry.

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