Aristia Est Revenue

From Arista Investor Relations - Press Release - Earnings Results.

Feb 2016 Estimated Revenue 232 to 240 - Actual Revenue 242.2
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 62 to 65% - Actual 64.4%

May 2016 Estimated Revenue 259 to 265 - Actual Revenue 268.7
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 62 to 65% - Actual 63.8%

Aug 2016 Estimated Revenue 279 to 285 - Actual Revenue 290.3
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 62 to 65% - Actual 64.2%

Nov 2016 Estimated Revenue 310 to 320 - Actual Revenue 328
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 61 to 64% - Actual 64%

Feb 2017 Estimated Revenue 320 to 330 - Actual Revenue 335.5
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 61 to 64% - Actual 63.9%

May 2017 Estimated Revenue 354 to 364 - Actual Revenue 405.2
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 61 to 64% - Actual 64.1%

Aug 2017 Estimated Revenue 405 to 420 - Actual Revenue 437.6
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 61 to 64% - Actual 64.1%

Nov 2017 Estimated Revenue 405 to 464 - Actual Revenue 467.9
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 63 to 65% - Actual 65.7%

Feb 2018 Estimated Revenue 450 to 468 - Actual Revenue 472.5
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 63 to 65% - Actual 64.1%

May 2018 Estimated Revenue 500 to 514 - Actual Revenue To Be Determined
Estimated GAAP Gross Margins 62 to 64% - Actual To Be Determined

For my own piece of mind I wanted to look back at Aristia’s Estimated Revenue verses their actual. I know their projections are only one quarter out, but wanted to do it anyway. Aristia’s management has won my respect, especially Jayshree Ullal, I think she calls 'em as she sees 'em.

Kindest Regards,
Steve

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Good Stuff Steve.

You can see that the 2 quarters for May and Aug 2017 where they really hit it out of the park. They said on the conference call that it was the perfect storm for those quarters and they are going to be difficult to beat due to those high growth rates.

Probably have a little lower growth rates for the next few quarters but long term this company appears to be a winner!

Looks like about $517-525 million for this next quarter would be about what would be “expected” based on their history of beating their guidance upper range.

Based on the high end of the revenue estimates it looks like management is projecting around 40% growth for the medium term

           High est.  (Y/Y % ch.)
Q1 2017      330          37%
Q2 2017      364          37%
Q3 2017      420          47%
Q4 2017      464          45%

Q1 2018      468          42%
Q2 2018      514          41%

From Happyhunting's post it looks like the actual rev  for Q2-2017 and Q3-2017 surprised mgmt and the lower guidance for Q2-2018 is more of a reversion to the 40% mean mgmt originally projected. If the CC's comments on white boxes, time lag on recording sales and growing demand for switches are any indication i feel the lower guidance for Q2-2018 is a temporary phenomenon instead of an indicator of a long-term slowdown in growth.
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Fixing the post with < pre > and < /pre> tags on the table alone.

Based on the high end of the revenue estimates it looks like management is projecting around 40% growth for the medium term


           High est.  (Y/Y % ch.)
Q1 2017      330          37%
Q2 2017      364          37%
Q3 2017      420          47%
Q4 2017      464          45%

Q1 2018      468          42%
Q2 2018      514          41%

From Happyhunting’s post it looks like the actual rev for Q2-2017 and Q3-2017 surprised mgmt and the lower guidance for Q2-2018 is more of a reversion to the 40% mean mgmt originally projected. If the CC’s comments on white boxes, time lag on recording sales and growing demand for switches are any indication i feel the lower guidance for Q2-2018 is a temporary phenomenon instead of an indicator of a long-term slowdown in growth.

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From Happyhunting’s post it looks like the actual rev for Q2-2017 and Q3-2017 surprised mgmt and the lower guidance for Q2-2018 is more of a reversion to the 40% mean mgmt originally projected. If the CC’s comments on white boxes, time lag on recording sales and growing demand for switches are any indication i feel the lower guidance for Q2-2018 is a temporary phenomenon instead of an indicator of a long-term slowdown in growth.

Happy:

The guidance is for 27% YoY growth in the 2nd quarter 2018 (not sure where you got the 41% from for Q2) and they intimated the same mid 20% growth in the remaining 2018 quarters as well. I get what you are suggesting based on some unexpected good fortune for a couple 2017 quarters with MSFT spend…but we should also take them for their word:

“jayshree’s comments from last quarter with respect to top line growth moderating to a more typical mid 20’s for the year”.

Most every company has declining growth % as their revenue base increases…there is no reason to think that ANET will not have the same financial metrics…until the next spark like perhaps 400G demand.

Past growth rates are no guarantee for future growth rates to continue so I think we take them for their word…they have no idea more than 2 quarters out.

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If they hit the midpoint for GM, as they did last Q, GMs will look like this:

2Q ago: 65.7%
Last Q: 64.1%

This Q: 63.0%. [forecast]

That is something to be concerned about, given the valuation.

On top of the slowing growth fears on the topline. This is how multiple compression works for hi-growth firms in the hardware biz like ANET.

8-10% lower I’d probably get interested again.

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