Over 5%; yowza!
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2025 is 5.1% on January 9, down from 5.4 percent on January 8.
DB2
Yowza, the first estimate for Q4 gdp came in at less than half of that big 5.1% forecast.
During last spring’s tariff tantrums many of us predicted recession in the later part of 2025, but then we had lots of taco tantrums.
So, after all of that drama, our first year in the golden age is estimated at 2.2% gdp growth, lower than 2024.
And the job market is a disaster as workers wait for the new factories to be built.
Oh wait, now the supreme court reversed some tariffs. Time to refund those tariffs to the companies, so if consumers paid any of those tariffs, oh well.
And Q4 pce inflation was 2.9%.
The U.S. economy cooled sharply at the end of 2025, with growth slowing to an annual rate of 1.4 percent, as tariffs and a weeks-long government shutdown sapped its earlier momentum.
Overall, the economy expanded by 2.2 percent last year, lower than the 2.8 percent growth the year before, according to new data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
The latest gross domestic product report — which sums up the goods and services produced in the United States — reflects rising imports and a widening trade gap, despite President Donald Trump’s push to revive U.S. manufacturing.
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Yes, the Schumer Shutdown (for more than two-thirds of last quarter) hit the Q4 GDP. Federal spending dropped by 17%. I guess that without the shutdown, we’d probably have seen a GDP number in the 2.5-3% range in Q4.
DB2
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Oh come on, you’re better than this. The shutdown was over a policy disagreement. Dems wanted a short term funding “clean resolution”, with a carve out so that the immigration excesses could be worked on.
That Republicans didn’t get everything they wanted doesn’t mean it was “Schumer”. It was just as much “Republicans” refusing to give an inch. A half an inch. A centimeter. A millimeter.
Too much Fox News, that’s what’s destroying the country. The inability to compromise, that’s going to be the end of us.
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Bob,
Stay strong, stay long.
Goof,
Bob is better than you maybe, but not me. Lol
Sorry I triggered you. There was indeed a policy disagreement over ACA subsidy extensions. The Dems had no leverage and so elected to shutdown the government instead of conceding defeat. Of course, they didn’t have any leverage after the shutdown ended. The shutdown didn’t have to happen (call it what you will). And, as noted upthread, there was a negative effect on GDP.
DB2
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Less government is better, no?
Or now we are saying gdp would be better with more government?
Wouldn’t the economy grow faster without inefficient government in the way?
Today we can be grateful for another tax cut with the tariffs undone, that’s good, right?
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When things depend on Democratic votes to pass, and no negotiations take place…that’s the definition of leverage.
I agree. If one party doesn’t have the votes, and they refuse to negotiate, a shutdown is quite possible…but doesn’t have to happen. Instead of blaming Democrats, maybe you should realize that at the very least, the GOP was equally responsible for the shutdown.
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What’s 100k premature deaths per year between friends?
That claim is a misquote. The quote in the first instance before playing telephone, the government would only report on GDP up till the shutdown. The shutdown was not the reason for the economic slowdown.
David,
My thinking has moved forward. I do not know when Trump will default. If he defaults before the midterms, he loses. He is trying to play animal shelter hero right now. If he defaults it will be after the US economy is in tatters. That might take a year or two to find the bottom from here.
Why default. When we come back at them with higher taxes, the interest on the debt and paying off the debt won’t be in play. Taxes on the rich will be lower.
Meanwhile a lot of nest eggs will be gone.
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