August Portfolio Summary

Investing Strategies Abandoned Arctic Outpost #13
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My strategy for August was to ignore the portfolio while out of country, cross my fingers, chant gibberish incoherently every morning while trying to sober up - and, just hope for the best. And while some may indeed scoff at my lackluster but well intentioned efforts - as things turned out, it could have well been worse. Much worse. Truth be told, I had the ignore part of my plan down pat; however, and frankly, mostly forgot about the whole finger crossing thingy. But the morning Stock Market Chant (SMC) was truly a thing of beauty.

Note 1) While I have to tweak the market chant just a bit, in general it seemed to have played some yet undefined but positive role in buoying the portfolio. Once I get it all bucked out - thing has to be adjusted for monthly planetary orbit and and strategic positioning dynamics - it may be available for rent on a sort of CaaS (Chanting as a Service) basis for a small subscription fee. Proof, after all, is in the performance!

Note 2) I am an amateur investor encompassing all the chaos that entails with a semi-defined and frequently highly flawed perspective that nonetheless generates widely varying degrees of totally unexpected consequences. I can say with complete confidence that there is no actionable investing advice anywhere to be found in this performance summary. For further reference and clarification please see this Harrison Ford Broccoli joke:

Additional Free Note: Those with rabbit ears and high moral turpitude should not expose themselves to this joke.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwiSleSku4-BAxWsmWoFHcIbBmwQwqsBegQIChAG&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DTRHWvVBxWCw&usg=AOvVaw2dtQVn7nssm0SJbMyS2xMM&opi=89978449

So how’d the portfolio make out during my mental absence? Lost 1.6% in August which - when I think of the myriad of other potential outcomes - doesn’t sound to awfully bad. ( It was a combination of lack of finger crossing and poorly worded chant gibberish that wasn’t attuned to the correct market spectrum for August that prevented better results. - Yes, I am sure of it.) So how does the year look so far?

January - The portfolio tacked on a solid +10.4%
February - Lost our way a bit and slid down by -0.6%
March - Regained some composure and ended with a healthy gain of +3.8%
April - Sputtered our way to a loss of -1.7%.
May - Best month of the year to date with a superstar gain of +26.8%
June - Continued the party with a monthly gain of +9.1%
July - Partied on tacking on a solid +8.3% gain.
August - stumble bummed myself to a loss of -1.6%

After all that, the portfolio maintains a rock solid YTG of 54.5%

The Roster

A. The STARTERS

  1. TTD
  2. MNDY
  3. NET
  4. AEHR
  5. GLBE

B. The Bench

6.) IOT
7.) MDB
8.) AMD
9.) PSTG
10) MRVL

C. Rookie Development Squad

  1. PGY

What I think is gonna happen shortly… subsequent to some as yet only marginally defined form of a highly detailed and well thought out September Starting Gate is this:

  1. Most likely to trim TTD a bit
  2. Probably add the TTD trim to IOT
  3. Add to PSTG
  4. looking hard at NET but not all that sure why.
  5. Add to AEHR without trepidation or malice.

List of companies near the very top of my potential, very possible, sorta… maybe, September roster additions:

Note 3) Sold both CRWD and AXON after nice runs and may add back if they fall back to earth.

  1. Enovix - potential new fangled battery blockbuster moonshot that might could possibly become a Jordanesque AllStar in a couple of years. Have to reconcile that two year potential against my maximum performance patience spread of somewhere between 1-3 months reasonably dedicated to a sort of Go big or Go Home investing thingy. Amateur stuff really - sigh!

  2. IONQ - Nuclear powered computer power stuff - or something very similar…I think…maybe.

  3. PLTR - Much disrespected AI underdog with potential accelerating revenue growth going forward. Price has come down to the Highly, Highly Overvalued Bin from the Highly, Highly, Highly Overvalued Bin and so an obviously/perhaps potentially worthwhile Rookie Dev Slot type contract.

  4. DATADOG/ZS and ENPH - Former AllStars currently shunned for more shiny and brighter objects of affection. Might do it anyway - just because I can.

  5. SMCI - had it - sold it (Much too soon as is my standard and traditional unforced investing handicap procedure). IF - it drifts down to a level commiserate with my patented 15 min Deep Dive Research estimates - give or take 14.7% - I am back in. Definitely maybe.

  6. Whatever else I can think of.

Thats it - all I got.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Thanks for the update Champico, always entertaining and informative. @XMFRob, would you mind letting us have your thoughts on SMCI? A few months back you had a decent stake in them, would like to hear your thoughts, if you wouldn’t mind sharing. Thanks in advance.

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  • I was surprised by SMCI’s guidance for EPS… it was higher than I expected.

  • The guidance for production capability also surprised me… they said they’d reach a level by year end… that they claimed to already have at the end of the prior quarter. I don’t know if that’s confusion or deception.

  • I was a bit disappointed with guidance for the next quarter, specifically that they might be supply constrained. Hence the big share price drop.

  • I still have my oversize allocation. I plan to hold it through the next earnings report.

Rob
He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.

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Thank you Rob, appreciate the thoughts and you’ve given me food for thought. Tbh, would be very happy to see more thoughts from you because you have such a different way to investing, quite different from mine, and that forces me to question my thoughts. Thanks again and to Champico as well for sharing.

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Cut MRVL largely based upon rapidly accelerating indifference. The company could work out to become a player in the AI thing - so says one of the brainy gurus I follow who seems to have a broad and detailed vision for such stuff; but, If you just don’t care - you just don’t care.

Note on SMCI Discussion: The same Brainy Deep Insight Guru of foundational tech stock stuff noted above and her trusty tech triggerman sidekick recently trimmed SMCI. I suppose it bumbled across some technical trip wire or something similar but the Brainy Deep Insight Guru of significant tech stock stuff is still sky high on the company. Not as sky high as on a few other companies - some of which could perhaps be sky highers or some such but I suppose that is not the point. What is the point, I only marginally suppose, is that on SMCI I will probably await further highly complicated analysis from the Mother Ship before re-entering - unless I somehow don’t.

In other news, the great “They practically own South America” (MELI) has bounced high and went away - which saddens me. Was my favorite go to/scrimmage stock. Was hoping AXON would fill that role. Sigh!

Lastly -without any particular bias, I keep asking myself has ENPH been skinned alive enough to merit entry? Hard to tell whats Meritorious sometimes. Word on the street is that they are prepping for a come back. Trying to get their mojo back. Dunno

All the Best,

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NET is a starter after some absence. Any reasoning here that this ticker is back in the game?

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Hi ML:

None that would resonate I am afraid. Just bits and bobbles of commentary from here and there picked up across several of the services I subscribe to as well as decent performance from their latest ER along with raising their guidance. Seemed healthy to me. More bigly, part of my lingering thoughts of getting the band back together: CRWD; ZS; and several others who despite working their way out of the hearts, minds and the portfolios of some pretty smart folks seem to be chugging right along hardly missing a beat. Perhaps the victims of too much left hand - too much analysis of every single detail, the flotsam of minutia - into oblivion. Or something like that.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Despite what my amateur eyes judged to be fairly good, but certainly not out-of-the-ball-park wonderful results, I decided to move forward with getting the band back together by adding ZS on today’s puny little sell off. Either will be congratulating myself on acute investing acumen or patching up my hand from the falling knife. We’ll see I suppose.

In the also file: Added to both PGY and PSTG under the: In For a Penny - In for a Pound theory.

Added to MDB based largely on the - Half Way to Stealing Sec cond Base and No Use Turning Back rule.

Gave RELY a Rookie Development Squad contract. Hated to do it after its recent run - which appears to be topped out. But by putting it on the roster I’ll have to keep an eye on it which allows me to round it out a bit with what I expect to be some marginally, but not entirely insignificant, future weakness.

All The Best,
BDH Investing

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Note: ENPH lost another 3.7% today bringing their YTD performance to roughly a negative 50% - give a nudge or smidgen or so.

The Enphase Energy fall from grace reminds me that in life everything is usually just fine - until suddenly it’s not. And when you get to the “not” -it’s usually up to someone to figure out what to do. Regardless - what to make of the company just now?

On December 14, 2022 Enphase was flying high and closed that day at $332.80. Since then its been mostly all down hill for the company with it’s weak FQ2 report and weak guidance creating a final plummet that took the share price from $225 range all the way down to the $155 range. Over the next couple of months, from about May 3 until July 17 Enphase managed to rally back up to the $190 range. Negative sentiment, continuous hiking of rates by the FED, and market volatility has pushed it back down below $123 - just mere centimeters from its 52 week low.

Having said that - I do remember the old “It’s always darkest before dawn” thing. But does it apply to companies and their stocks or just to happy endings in movies.

I am starting to see a lot of chatter about the company - has it hit the bottom? Skid Row denizen stuff? And most importantly: has Enphase still got “IT” - or is it simply done.

As a reminder of the performance evidence that sunk the company here is the lethal ER:

Enphase Energy Reports Financial Results for the Second Quarter of 2023 | Seeking Alpha

And the after report Headline:

And lately - articles about spring flowers beginning to sprout:

…

Ok so what would/should a prudent investor do - if anything? Well…don’t ask me - I am anything but a prudent investor. But…

It seems to me that ENPH still has its “IT” - but faces interest rate headwinds. And until those interest rate headwinds subside - blow over and the FED begins to reverse/bail out and perhaps begins to support the robust economy it is trying its best to kill - then, perhaps would be the time to edge back into ENPH. Plain as the nose on…well…you know. However…

There is the problem of perhaps inventory build-up gumming up the recovery works - more or less. - and how to deal with all that as an investor, prudent or otherwise, might be a something of a conundrum of sorts. (At this point is where I need the smarter kids to chime in) But then…

If in fact a FED course reversal is a definitive perhaps - then why wait for the recovery to start - just edge in now and see how these things work out. Doesn’t the Fool advise edging in by thirds? And if so - due to the dire position Enphase finds itself in - maybe even go with a 1/4 entry. What’s the worse that can happen - and especially if you are a true believer that Solar is only beginning its world wide run. The whole 5 year thing and all.

All of which makes my head hurt. Worse - all of the finely cloaked gurus and insight gifted stock wizards I follow have gone silent on the company. Not a peep. What’s a stock idea thief to do when there is no ENPH stock ideas to thieve?

Investing is hard!

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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I think SE also comes under same category…
one stand out positive name +5% as local Indoensian Press talking about regulating TikTok Shop’s operations in Indonesia, mainly around seeparating social media and e-com. Definitely a positive if it happens but still a ways away. From GS: “The Minister commented that Tiktok would still be allowed to sell in Indonesia, but would need to run social media and ecommerce separately, citing risks of an unfair competitive advantage especially if Tiktok also moves to operate own payments and logistics infrastructure. Overall, we take it as a net positive read-across for Sea’s Shopee with the company currently viewing Tiktok as its main competition and key reason behind Shopee’s recent uptick in spending (SE 2Q23 review here); given that separation of Tiktok’s social media and ecommerce functions into separate apps would likely dampen its organic ecommerce growth potential as it would take away advantages from in-app conversions”

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VMadi:

Yes…I think you are right. But…for whatever reason SE always reminds me of Howard Hughes and the history of The Spruce Goose. Not all that sure how it might correlate exactly with SE and its potential - but it’s there nevertheless at least in my mind, such as that might be.

All The Best,
BDH Investing

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SMCI back on the roster.

Without input from the mother ship I have decided to tiptoe back into SMCI and did so with todays additional 12% free fall. Over the last month SMCI is down somewhere around 25% and perhaps has bottomed out - at least for now. We’ll see I suppose.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Even Putnid has been silent for a long time now…

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Hi ClubberV:

I think he has moved on to what he believes are much greener pastures just now: Enovix Corp. And with his track record its hard not to give it a good look:

Current Price: $14.11
52 Wk Range: 6.50 - 26.30
30 Day Momentum: - 18.3%
Market Cap: $2.25B
Valuation: Think Intergalactic
Short Interest: 27.5%

There was a discussion on Saul’s about it with Saul chiming in that it hasn’t got any income to speak of and won’t have until major factories come online in mid 2024. At least thats what I remember him saying - but always best to go to the horse’s mouth and check it out yourself.

The big news that caused a recent spike was a contract with Army. Here is an article by Mr Wiggins about it:

But then gravity intervened subsequent to its most recent report found here:

Here are a few recent rah-rah things on it from SA:

And a Bear-Pooping-In-The-Woods article:

Not all sure of what to think about ENVX - but watching it - I suppose.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Added to: IOT; PGY; MNDY and GLBE

Initiated a RDS position in PLTR.

Looking at AXON and ENPH.

If TMDX goes down tomorrow will add it to the RDS.

All the Best,
BDH Investing.

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Liar Liar Pants on Fire: TMDX went down today and I did not, in fact, buy.

Instead I did this:

Added to GLBE

Added to AEHR

Topped off PLTR - but just a bit: Still a RDS position.

Added to IOT

Added to SMCI

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Growth Plan:

If ENPH dips tomorrow I may start a RDS level position with the intent to build it out over the next three months or so. Despite its current troubles the stock appears to be in the bargain bin category unless it really isn’t and is just fooling me. Note: I am easily fooled.

Income Plan: FDUS. Currently pays 8.3 or 8.4% - or something like that. The company goes EX-D on Tuesday for payment on Sept 27. FDUS currently pays .41 Quarterly; however, this QTR it will be paying the .41 plus a .21 Supplemental plus a .10 Special. Best of all - with the All-Too-Lovely currently working on planning for all her holiday events with her club cronies - she will never. ever know I touched her portfolio.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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Note: Today I employed a classic but modified pivot using RTHG strategy - paused on the actual execution which is primarily dependent upon tomorrow’s FED stuff.

Separately… but with offense in mind I added to every single roster position; albeit, measured by weight of allocation. My cash horde shrinketh.

With or without the FED’s help I intend to initiate a position in ENPH - unless, after sleeping on it - some other perspective investing concept blooms over night - and/or, unless ENPH runs away. If such is the case - additional thinking of stuff will occur.

Additionally, I have waited semi patiently for AXON to fall below
the $200 per share level and while close at today’s close it remains somewhat stubborn. Note: The $200 per share threshold is of no strategic importance that I can see but it seems a fair compromise of sorts.

And this is where the Modified RTHG strategy comes into play: In order to accomplish the additions of both AXON and ENPH I am willing to sacrifice MDB and ZS - although, when push comes to actual shove we’ll see I suppose.

All The Best,
BDH Investing

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Champ -

Just curious…do you ever sell puts when targeting a specific price? I’ve done that quite a few times while looking to build up positions this year (AEHR and IOT specifically). I did it most recently with CELH. After collecting premiums on $195 puts three weeks in a row, I finally bought shares outright at $195.50 with a cost basis below $190 subtracting the premiums collected.

With very few names running away in 2023, I’ve been pleasantly surprised at how many times I’ve added shares at or below a price I was hoping to get.

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Hi StockNovice:

Perhaps unfortunately for my bottom line, I have never used options under the general and probably misguided perception that they take a great deal of work/thought process and have variable uncontrolled outcomes. As your results clearly indicate, in the hands of knowledgeable investors the benefits are clearly beneficial and outweigh the risks. In simple terms - you seem to know what you are doing.

I think I remember that originally The Fool cautioned against options, margin and investing more than you can afford to lose. Somehow over time the use of options became acceptable and The Fool now has services that revolve around them. I could be wrong about The Fool’s original thinking about options but somewhere ingrained in my thinking such is, or rather was the case. At any rate, regardless of where they came from - all three of those particular cautions have stuck with me and I am hesitant to cross those lines. More to the point - I suppose options for me can be filed under “You can’t teach a dog new tricks”.

All the Best,
BDH Investing

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