Since January 2020 just four wind farms started construction in NSW, with a combined capacity of only 1GW. Solar has been growing faster, but…
…landscape has deteriorated over the past 12 months…
According to the latest version of AEMO’s flagship report, the 2026 ISP released in June, over 5 GW of coal is scheduled to close in 2029. By 2035, Australia is scheduled to have lost around 15 GW of coal capacity, almost all from Victoria and NSW.
With Australia’s electricity demand set to soar due to the build-out of data centres, projected strong population growth, the electrification of the vehicle fleet, and the need for more water desalination plants, the notion that we could eliminate 15 GW of baseload non-weather-dependent generation for intermittent wind and solar generation is unrealistic and would lead to energy shortages.
Recognising this fact, the Queensland government extended the life of its coal power stations by at least another decade into the 2040s and beyond. Last week, the physics reality hit NSW and Victorian policymakers. Energy analyst firm Rystad warned that Australia’s east coast electricity market could face an acute supply deficit early next decade if coal-fired power plants retire as scheduled…Not surprisingly, the media reported last week that the NSW government is actively examining extending the life of the state’s coal-fired generators.
DB2