Autonomous driving safety

[mostlylong]

@mostlylong

After about 96 million miles, Waymo had about 304 fewer injury crashes, 80% lower, than a human driver benchmark.

Rough comparison of Waymo and Tesla incidents.

@mostlylong

We probably couldn’t do even this rough calculation without NHTSA oversight.

We can easily compute the exact Poisson 95% confidence interval for this data.

[Tesla]
7 incidents in 250k miles: 11 to 52 incidents per million miles.

[Waymo]
234 incidents in 128m miles: 1.6 to 2 incidents per million miles.

[Ratio of Tesla to Waymo Incident Rate]
95% confidence interval for the ratio is about 8.87 to 23.76.

In all this we assume constant average incident rate. And with continued development of both systems this assumption is quite shaky.

If we use 100m miles instead of 128m, then the interval is 8.03 to 22.61 times.