This is a business-focused, dollars and cents discussion for making investing decisions.
How much revenue will Tesla earn from their US sales to the general public of in-house built L4 autonomous
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taxi rides, or
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consumer-owned vehicles (Tesla assumes liability)
in the year 2026 or 2027?
In the year 2028?
What’s a minimum revenue number for either type of product for each year?
Material revenue from consumer-owned is far away, not 2026, not 2027, I’d guess not 2028, just not in sight that I can tell, so I’d pencil in not approaching $50 million, probably much closer to $0 million. Not material for a company this size or relative to the size of the US auto market.
How about Robotaxi?
I guesstimate Tesla won’t have even 1% of US taxi market in 2026, 2027, and maybe not 2028. Not even $300 million, but the actual number will most likely be much smaller: can they even manage $100 million by 2028? I don’t think so (but 2028 is far away for this kind of revenue projection with no proven product).
Show your work:
Assume 1 taxi generates $250k per year
4 taxis get $1 million
then 400 taxis gets $100 million
400 taxis x 100k miles per year = 40 million miles per year
Will Tesla have 400 L4 taxis for entire year
in 2026? No.
2027? Very unlikely.
2028? Maybe if they solve L4 by 2027, and then prove safe enough for 400 taxis before 2028 passes, but still seems doubtful in this timeframe.
And $100 million is not $300 million ($300 million might get you 1% of the US taxi market).
(see other thread on march of 9s to proven safety:
)
Other guesstimates?