Autonomous Vehicles---What Happened? Reality

Not precisely on point, but close enough for this joint:

One day the downpour was so heavy that I could hardly see the road - as bad as thick fog. Human perception has the same problems!

Neural networks are replacing algorithms (heuristics).

Some do but Tesla is not one of them. Tesla uses maps for route planning but not for the actual driving.

Some of those ‘challenges’ are imaginary while others that we have yet to discover might be lurking.

The Captain

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More? I thought for some years now we were getting figures of fewer accidents per mile.

They’re measuring different things. Tesla’s measuring crashes, and the LendingTree study measured incidents - which include non-crash incidents like traffic citations, DUI’s, and speeding tickets in addition to actual crashes.

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LendingTree looked at accidents as well as incidents.

"Nationally, Ram drivers had 32.90 driving incidents (accidents, DUIs, speeding and citations) per 1,000 drivers from Nov. 14, 2022, through Nov. 14, 2023. Tesla (31.13) and Subaru (30.09) were the only other brands whose drivers had incident rates above 30.00…

“Tesla drivers have the highest accident rate. From Nov. 14, 2022, through Nov. 14, 2023, Tesla drivers had 23.54 accidents per 1,000 drivers. Ram (22.76) and Subaru (20.90) were the only other brands with more than 20.00 accidents per 1,000 drivers.”


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Different things, and that meme is wrongly calculated to start with.

This is “Tesla drivers”, which is different than “Tesla’s driving with auto-pilot”. Tesla drivers may use the ‘quick acceleration’ more, or speed more, or something, dunno.

The stat of “Tesla’s with auto pilot” is heavily skewed towards interstate and limited access driving where accidents are more rare, but it is mistakenly compared to “all driving” including city and suburban driving on feeder streets, where accidents in stop and go traffic are far more common.

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My memory of the “on FSD” figures was that there was also a figure for without.

No, it isn’t that either. It’s Tesla drivers who looked for insurance quotes at Lending Tree, which would be maybe a few of the worst Tesla drivers. The analysis relies on garbage data. It’s meaningless.


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Very interesting. For all car drivers the average age is the mid to late 40s. Tesla is no exception. I just looked up some of the data. I was surprised. Older people drive Teslas.

What makes the Tesla rate worse is urban v rural stats. I am reasonably guessing Tesla is an urban car.

The fatality rate in rural areas decreased by 8 percent from 1.89 in 2012 to 1.74 in 2021. The fatality rate in urban areas increased by 55 percent from 0.77 in 2012 to 1.19 in 2021. In 2021 the fatality rate was 1.5 times higher in rural areas than in urban areas (1.74 versus 1.19) .,2012%20to%201.74%20in%202021.&text=The%20fatality%20rate%20in%20urban,2012%20to%201.19%20in%202021.&text=In%202021%20the%20fatality%20rate%20was%201.5%20times%20higher%20in,areas%20(1.74%20versus%201.19).

Where are the most car accidents per capita?

As you can see, Mississippi has the most car accidents per capita by state. For anyone who understands car accident risk factors, this is relatively unsurprising.

What State Has the Most Car Accidents? | 1800THELAW2.

The point is the entire thing is a disaster as usual. At least the Telsas are better built than most cars for safety.