AXON Earnings FY2025Q4

AXON earnings for FY2025 Q4:

Links

Earnings Release
Earnings Call Transcript
Shareholder Letter
Investor Deck

Earnings Release Highlights

Numbers I look at for a first impression:

  • Revenue Growth +33% YoY, +12% Sequential
  • Adjusted Gross Margin: 61.1%, up from 60.1% in FY2025Q3
  • Net Revenue Retention (NRR): 125% (up from 124% in FY2025Q3 and 123% in FY2024Q4)

Earnings Release Summary:

Earnings Release: Key operational milestones in 2025 are as follows:

  • Delivered $2.8 billion in annual revenue, up 33% year over year
  • Surpassed $1.3 billion in annual recurring revenue, up 35% year over year
  • Generated annual bookings of $7.4 billion, up 46% year over year
  • Reached total future contracted bookings of $14.4 billion, an increase of 43% year over year
  • Achieved a full-year net income margin of 4.5% alongside a 25.5% Adjusted EBITDA margin
  • Introduced major product expansions, including Axon Vehicle Intelligence, Axon Assistant, Axon Body Mini and Axon 911

Growth Target for 2028

It is worth noting, AXON provided a growth target for 2028 that indicates 30% CAGR over the next three years:

Looking forward to 2028, we intend to:

  • Achieve $6 billion in annual revenue
  • Deliver Adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 28%
  • Generate strong cash flow with Adjusted Free Cash Flow conversion of 60% of Adjusted EBITDA
  • Limit annual dilution from stock-based compensation to less than 2.5%

Earnings Call Highlights

The earnings call provided a lot of detailed information on specific products, use scenarios, and R&D efforts. Overall, I am left with two significant high level impressions: (1) Management is capably leading the company as it grows in size. (2) Management has an excellent balance between effective real world solutions and innovation using new technologies (AI and drones, at the moment). The below quotes from the earnings call transcript are relevant to those points, not an exhaustive list of interesting information from the earnings call.

Josh Isner, President
Given the fourth quarter result, I want to call out a few stand-up performances. First, our US state and local team, led by Jessica Duncan. This is our best team at the company and possibly the best team in the entire industry. In 2025, they delivered not one, but three nine-figure deals.

A few years ago, that didn’t even seem possible. This demonstrates the tremendous reception that our new products are receiving. Speaking of new products, a second highlight was that new product bookings, which include Air, AI and Fusus, totaled over $1 billion for the year and were nearly triple 2024’s result.

Josh Isner, President
For two years, we have recognized that for software companies to win in the age of AI, they must convert their existing customer base to AI users before someone else does, I believe Axon is doing that better than any company in public safety. To that end, in our first full year of selling the AI Era Plan, it accounted for approximately $750 million worth of bookings, or about 10% of the overall bookings total.

We are positioned to be a winner in this AI-driven environment. We intend to lap the field. Along those lines, we see a lot of runway across our new product portfolio. ALPR and Vehicle Intelligence is another one that has barely scratched the surface. Our pipeline is sitting in the nine figures for that new product set, and we expect that to continue to grow. These are exactly the signs we need to see to know we are on the right track, and it’s why we keep building more.

Rick Smith, CEO and Founder
We’re not a simple all-software company waiting to be undercut by a cheaper model or a faster startup. We’re an integrated ecosystem of hardware, software, and real-world data embedded in regulated environments, trusted by the customers who depend on us most, and that trust is not a marketing line.

It is the result of 30 years of showing up, delivering, and earning the right to be a partner rather than a vendor. Here’s how I see the opportunity: if we deploy AI more aggressively and more thoughtfully than anyone else in this space, while honoring the responsibility that comes with operating in the environments we operate in, we will create value that our customers simply cannot replicate, cannot replace, and most importantly, they will not want to because they trust us.

They will reward that with deeper partnerships, larger opportunities, and bigger problems for us to go solve together. None of this gives us permission to relax. Complacency is fatal. In a world moving this fast, yesterday’s success is not a foundation, it is a liability if you let it make you comfortable.

Revenue / EPS / FCF History

Revenue History

Fiscal Year 1 2 3 4 Grand Total
2022 $ 256,426 $ 285,613 $ 311,754 $ 366,142 $ 1,219,935
2023 $ 343,043 $ 374,605 $ 413,601 $ 432,142 $ 1,563,391
2024 $ 460,736 $ 504,099 $ 544,274 $ 575,145 $ 2,084,254
2025 $ 603,633 $ 668,538 $ 710,641 $ 796,724 $ 2,779,536

Free Cash Flow History

Fiscal Year 1 2 3 4 Grand Total
2022 $ 28,829 $ 6,560 $ 30,856 $ 122,146 $ 188,391
2023 $ (60,059) $ 33,893 $ 53,322 $ 120,955 $ 148,111
2024 $ (26,109) $ 75,300 $ 68,297 $ 226,816 $ 344,304
2025 $ 2,708 $ (110,705) $ 36,636 $ 157,010 $ 85,649

EPS History

Fiscal Year 1 2 3 4 Grand Total
2022 $ 0.45 $ 0.44 $ 0.60 $ 0.70 $ 2.19
2023 $ 0.88 $ 1.11 $ 1.02 $ 1.12 $ 4.13
2024 $ 1.15 $ 1.20 $ 1.45 $ 2.08 $ 5.88
2025 $ 1.41 $ 2.12 $ 1.17 $ 2.15 $ 6.85

Quarterly Revenue Growth, Year-over-year (YoY)

Fiscal Year 1 2 3 4
2023 33.78% 31.16% 32.67% 18.03%
2024 34.31% 34.57% 31.59% 33.09%
2025 31.01% 32.62% 30.57% 38.53%

Quarterly Revenue Growth, Sequential

Fiscal Year 1 2 3 4
2022 11.38% 9.15% 17.45%
2023 -6.31% 9.20% 10.41% 4.48%
2024 6.62% 9.41% 7.97% 5.67%
2025 4.95% 10.75% 6.30% 12.11%
35 Likes

AXON is a great company but I haven’t owned for a long time due to it’s high valuation, not sure what it looks like after earnings. NTM EV EBITDA is 44 vs two year fwd ebidta cagr of 30% for a ratio of 1.47. (for example, IREN ratio is .07, crdo is .14) NTM PE of 59 vs fwd 2 yr eps cagr of 22% looks even worse. There is no margin of safety here and at this valuation, it’s a ripe candidate to drop 50% on a downturn.

7 Likes

I agree with Jeff, but I do hold a 7.6% allocation, and I do love the business. Yeah it’s expensive, and I am also concerned about the overly generous stock compensation that management gives itself. Without the stock based compensation, I would be more of a buyer. While I am happy with the results, I will continue to sit on my hands.

Best,

bulwnkl

10 Likes

While I don’t disagree, I do suggest caution with simple comparisons like these. A lot of important context can be hidden. I agree AXON does not have the cheapest valuation. Yet if I had only invested in companies meeting your criteria, I am fairly certain I would have missed out on many of my best investments. An old post of Saul’s that is worth a read, from a time when EV/S was a big conversation: How I Pick a Company to Invest In .

I do sometimes glance briefly at these types of relative valuations between my companies, mostly to determine general trends and exit strategies. Or to decide if a company is a good fit for option trading. I then dive in to more important details.

10 Likes