I cannot find any news on AYX this morning, but the stock is up $5.00 pre-market?
John
2 Likes
It seems that a Citigroup analyst posted an extremely positive outlook on AYX
13 Likes
Hopefully this analyst is not related to the analyst who downgraded TTD.
Et pour cause. 
7 Likes
Yeah, it makes me slightly uneasy to be honest…
1 Like
Different analyst. TTD was Stifel.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3434978-trade-desk-minus-3-per……
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=2870178&headli…
“He believes Alteryx’s 2019 revenue guidance could be ~20%-50% above Street estimates.”
How’s that even possible? The street’s average 2019 estimate (according to Yahoo) is 272m. Even 20% more would be 326m. That would be guidance for 61% growth for 2019.
WHAT? There’s zero chance they do that. Even if they do think they will accelerate growth that much, which would be incredible, there’s no way they guide for it.
That analyst is crazy.
Bear
8 Likes
That analyst is crazy.
Hi Bear,
Or he could be a short trying to set people up for disappointment, no matter how good the actual guidance. (I think that that is probably more likely than crazy). Hate to be such cynic.
Best
Saul
11 Likes
I am very cynical when it comes to analysts. Whether propping up or driving down, they all have a self serving agenda.
Kevin
Maybe the analyst is just wrong.
Maybe they are out to make a name for themselves. People remember the great predictions more than the terrible ones.
Maybe they know something and are helping their clients by getting in before blowout earnings and guidance.
Maybe they know something and are pumping the stock to get a better price for some important clients to sell before disappointing earnings.
Maybe they know we know they are trying to pump the stock and are using reverse psychology to get in before blowout earnings.
…
Or perhaps we need to remember who the analysts are. Most are just a few years out of college (according to his LinkedIn page, Mr. Radke graduated in 2012). The ones who are very good are likely to be hired away by private management groups. While I might use a moved based on an analyst as an opportune time to buy or sell something I was already going to buy or sell, I’d be hard pressed to make any decisions based on one of these analysts.
14 Likes
The timing is definitely suspect. You update your targets a day after 10-Q not a day before that. For me the most likely scenario is that he’s covering for some clients exiting their AYX positions.
However, as you say, they might simply be wrong. I’ve shaved off my AYX position earlier this month to get it under 20% of my portfolio so I’m not going to sell more now but if anybody has been considering trimming their position, this is a good opportunity.
1 Like