AYX Reports

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alteryx-announces-fourth-quar…

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What a wild ride in after hours… $86 to $73

Square is also on a wild ride
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/square-announces-fourth-quart…

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I know where my spare cash is going when the market opens…

And look at BOX, down 18%. Wow! (I don’t own, whew). Looks like a pattern of weak guidance going on here. :frowning:

These numbers are good overall… Quick take…

Revenue growth 57% yoy
A dollar-based net retention rate of 132%
Number of customers up from 4315 last qtr to 4694
Adjusted gross margin was 92%
Deferred revenue down
Outlook for declining revenue (36% to 38% yoy)

🆁🅶🅱
wordlessly watching, he waits by the window and wonders…

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A year ago they guided for revenue of 176-179M for 2018. Their FY 2017 revenue was 131.6 million. That means they guided for revenue growth of 33.7% - 36% for this past year. This is approx the same as their guidance for FY 2019. No real reason to think growth is slowing based on guidance.

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Stop fretting over goofy guidance. It’s always going to be conservative to the point of it not even worth noting anymore. Focus in on the major metrics - how is retention rate? 132% ok check. Customer growth? ok another check. Revenue growth-- still hypergrowth, +50%? check again. Margins? 93%.

All these metrics wont deteriorate over night, especially when you have recurring income.

Best,
Matt

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Stop fretting over goofy guidance. It’s always going to be conservative to the point of it not even worth noting anymore. Focus in on the major metrics - how is retention rate? 132% ok check. Customer growth? ok another check. Revenue growth-- still hypergrowth, +50%? check again. Margins? 93%… Matt

Matt, I can’t believe some of these people still look at “guidance” and “consensus expectations” when they are such nonsense. I purposely don’t even look at our hyper-growth companies’ guidance because I know, and everyone knows, it’s nonsense! Okay, am I deluding myself??? That’s must why my portfolio has only quadrupled in two years and two months: because I ignore guidance!

Saul

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Stop fretting over goofy guidance

Who is fretting? I posted a quick recap of the year-end results. Should I just cherry pick the data? No.

Next quarter I’ll remain quiet. To each his own.

🆁🅶🅱
wordlessly watching, he waits by the window and wonders…

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I can’t believe some of these people still look at “guidance” and “consensus expectations” when they are such nonsense. I purposely don’t even look at our hyper-growth companies’ guidance because I know, and everyone knows, it’s nonsense! Okay, am I deluding myself??? That’s must why my portfolio has only quadrupled in two years and two months: because I ignore guidance!

Exactly!!

In exactly none of these instances do we have the company sounding gloomy in the prepared remarks or Q&A. They are not coming out saying, “welllll because of the xyz global issue, we are reducing our forecasts going forward and will cut back on everything, including paper clips!” Its quite the opposite!! They all sound very excited about their current market, speak glowingly about this and that customer win, and continue to invest heavily in R&D and Sales and Marketing, all of which they would cut back significantly if the real outlook was going to be bad.

Matt

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I like the fact that you pointed out the guidance. While we may all be “smart” enough to not take it seriously, probably most of the market is paying attention and it likely explains why AYX is down after hours. Good to know for that reason alone.

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I don’t consider down 3% AH to be much at all.

Just the result of the usual “sell the news” knee jerks.

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“I don’t consider down 3% AH to be much at all.”

Exactly. This plunge takes us back to the stock price from…two days ago.

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RGB, keep on keepin’ on, please, and sharing your posts.

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Deferred revenue down

Is this due to adoption of ASC606 vs 605? 606 recognizes more revenue up front, which would necessarily mean that deferred revenues would be down. From the conference call, “Our Q4 ASC 606 revenue was $89.2 million. Our Q4 ASC 605 revenue was $60.5 million, an increase of 57% year-over-year.” Immediately preceding that they note that “we have posted a presentation on the investor section of our website that provides additional details on the impact of ASC 606 on our financial information and disclosures, and the financial impact of adoption is also presented in our earnings release.” I have yet to review this, but that could provide additional insight.

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