It has been consolidating since the end of May. If you look at that chart I put up it has been trading in a stage 1 base and just passed a peak on 8/19 on very high volume. The big institutions are really buying up shares, as you can see by the volume. PDD is heading for a breakout at 164.99. I wouldn’t be surprised if it flattened out or broke back into the base after reaching that but I expect this will go much higher for now. If you look at my stop it is set just under the 200 sma which I do not expect them to break with what is going on in China.
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Moving my stop up on PDD. I have heard rumblings that the infusion of cash into the Chinese market might not be as big as was hoped. Just rumors but I want to protect my gains.
You will get a better picture after this meeting. I think Chinese authorities didn’t expect such a runway, so they may walk back a bit. When it comes to China, you always have to be aware of the Head-fake. Also, this move is essentially fueled by Hedge funds, and short sellers covering. So… they could turn on a dime.
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I wouldn’t have any idea and I don’t care about short term market movements. I just pick individual stock to hold for the long term when it is cheap relative to business prospects. I can’t consistently do better if I attempt to make short-term timing. Never set stop loss - again, it doesn’t help in my overall scheme.
Now I move on to spend energy in finding gems in other markets. Just found one I like in Japan!
That is one way to do it. Good luck!!.
Well after raising the market turned down. I had a strong feeling I wanted to sell some of my position in BABA, but was worried about taxes.
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I was stopped out yesterday at $152.36 for a 18% gain. Not bad for 12 days. Keeping an eye on it though.
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Closed some $BABA at $110 the last few days. I still have close to 3% position but taking profits and raising cash for 2025.
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$FXI broke some support today. It is expected given the sharp move up, it needs to consolidate. Chinese stimulus is not really a bazooka, even though many describe it as one, long term China observers/ investors are saying this is one to two quarters boost. It is not that China cannot do a bigger QE type program, but its leadership cannot tolerate big market caps, or those companies CEO. This is a real problem. Nothing like a scared dictator.
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From WSJ article
Calls from economists and investors inside and outside China for rebalancing the economy to household consumption from manufacturing haven’t gained much traction.
…
Another focus of the policies is to rescue China’s stock market, which has been on a losing streak for nearly four years. The People’s Bank of China is taking the unprecedented step of encouraging brokerage firms, insurers, and listed companies to tap central-bank or commercial-bank funding to buy stocks.
Support for household consumption has mainly come from a reduction in mortgage rates, part of a new push to arrest the multiyear downturn in the property market. Analysts estimate that the cut can save homeowners about 150 billion yuan, roughly $21 billion, in interest payments, a meager relief given the trillions of dollars in annual household consumption in China.
Since Beijing said late last month that it would do more to prop up the economy, many investors have found themselves on edge, fearing that they might either miss out on a rally or get sucked into a short-term pop.
After looking at this chart, and the trade has a good risk/ reward, so I did a call spread bought Jan 25 $90 and sold $92.5 for $1.8. As long as the stock is above $95, this trade will work, in fact if the stock stays above that you can expect $120.
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This is a a 5 year chart. Interesting to see peak to trough 80% drawdown.
Below is the Microsoft chart from 2000 to today…
From 2000 to Feb 2014, When Satya became CEO and pivoted Microsoft to Cloud.
The reason I posted these charts, BABA and MSFT together is to remind myself, stock correction can lead to 80% drawdown, while company performance actually gets better, and it may take sometimes 15 years for the company to get out of its range, all the while there financial metrics gets better.
MSFT, WMT are my two favorite charts where a long base leads to larger gains.
The rally is pretty much washed out. Dollar is rallying relentlessly. I think Soon Chinese stock may be interesting pick.
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I have been watching them but they have been getting killed, especially PDD. I noticed on Twitter that all the bulls have gone underground.
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I am looking at $FXI for clues, it is getting to the support zone… Buy and wait forever… 
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The stock is not above $95… it is at $85. I should have closed this trade, I failed to do it. Now I will close it. My optimism that $90 will hold is wrong. It looks like we are heading to $70. If we get there, then we have a potential $70 ~ $80 trading range.
on hindsight, I wish I had sold my entire position. Live and learn. 
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PDD just keeps sinking down.
BABA looks better but not by much.
I think until we see what the Tariff wars are going to be these are completely uninvestable.
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PDD is getting into support zone. Lot of support around here. I have open order for Feb $75 Put for $.9. Let us see if I get a bid.
You are selling that right?