Barry Ritholtz and Robert Reich look at the Fed's anti-inflation interest rate hikes

Neither presents a pretty of especially hopeful picture.

Ritholtz lays out 5 ways the Fed may be wrong and concludes with this.

Think of each idea as a leaping-off point for further discussion. What is already reflected in stock and bond prices? Does consensus usually develop early or late with these sorts of issues? If the FOMC is right, how long will it be before we know? Before inflation falls? Before rates drop? What tools are they missing? When does it become obvious they were right or wrong?
The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong… - The Big Picture

Reich looks at the inflation as a global phenomenon exacerbated by corporate greed.

Fed rate hikes won’t affect these forces unless they bring the U.S. economy to a crawl, by which time their human cost will be overwhelming.

Better to wait out the global supply shocks and deal with corporate power with a temporary windfall profits tax and more vigorous antitrust enforcement.


The US economy is taxiing the runway. There is that long moment before take off. That moment ends in 2024.

This is all about asset prices. Input costs. And then later in the process a complete retooling of the US economy.

Retooling the US economy since the 1980s has meant selling our manufacturing capacity to China and building warehouses.


… and then getting rid of the warehouses and having China do the warehousing and ship directly to the customers’ warehouses.

China was exporting a deflationary pressure in manufacturing. That is no longer the case and much of our current global inflation is a resultant.

The IRA makes gaining the expense deductions worth taking for corporate America. Similar to the 1950s there will be a surge in reinvesting here at home.

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