Battered and Forgotten - Bill.com

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#1

Make no mistake - I fully believe that bill.com is in the “coronavirus loser” category, as in companies that are going to be hurt more than others due to this virus. It caters to small and medium sized businesses, which will most likely be more reluctant to try some new software that costs money (even if said software ultimately saves them money). Hence, expect bill.com’s revenue growth rate to go down.

With the above out of the way, I think it’s possible that the above sentiment is by now fully priced in to the stock. It’s been trading under $30/share today, whereas before COVID, it was in the low 60’s. I think the long term prospects of this company look great, for those investors willing to ride out the storm and keep a longer investment horizon.

This thread started here by Oforfive is excellent - quality analysis by board members. It was updated in February and is still quite relevant: https://discussion.fool.com/billcom-34399611.aspx?sort=whole#343…

I think that, if you don’t have enough exposure to AYX in the $80 range (bargain of a life time), it makes more sense to go with a higher confidence pick like that. But I already have a decent amount of AYX exposure, so I am thinking about adding to bill.com - thought the rest of the board might want to be reminded of BILL.

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#2

I own BILL (my #4 position and am down 30%). I’ve added to my position a couple times. I’m a lot more diversified than most here and tend to buy and hold when I buy individual stocks.

s for BILL, their customers will likely be hit hard, and it will hurt revenues. Last quarter they reported 86k customers and billions in transactions/payments. Yet, if the SMBs continue to operate and pay bills, BILL becomes more valuable because their platform takes the place of people who may have been in the back office. They are helping SMBs in need by offering a waiver of subscription fees for 3 months to new customers. They still collect transaction revenues. So, while that will hurt revenue, it is an opportunity to add new customers on the platform (and help out SMBs). So, it is going to be bad but hopefully not as bad as teh market expects.

[OT on my market timing: On January 29, I sold all of my S&P 500 index ETF and went to 35+% cash (from about 100% invested) because of the fears of the virus and to have a cash buffer - good move. My biggest lesson of this down turn is that I was too eager to buy back in on some of the early dips. I would have been much better waiting and having more patience. Lesson learned.]

Mike

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