Bear's Portfolio through 04/2021

My 2021 Portfolio Performance as of


Jan +7.3% YTD
Feb +6.7% YTD
Mar +2.0% YTD
Apr +9.8% YTD

Positions (You can click on the link at the bottom of this post to last month if you want to see what has changed.)


Ticker	Curr%	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
DDOG	14.7%	2.9%	-12.9%
CRWD	14.6%	14.2%	-1.6%
DOCU	10.8%	10.1%	0.3%
SNOW	9.9%	1.0%	-17.7%
NET	9.8%	20.6%	11.5%
ETSY	8.3%	-1.4%	11.7%
BAND	6.6%	4.3%	-14.0%
UPST	5.3%	-15.4%	167.5%
LSPD	5.2%	11.1%	-0.8%
ZM	3.6%	-0.5%	-5.3%
TWLO	3.4%	7.9%	8.7%
MGNI	0.9%	-3.7%	30.4%
TWOU	0.6%	2.7%	-1.9%
ASAN	0.2%	16.6%	12.8%
cash	6.2%		

Datadog (DDOG)
02/26/2021: $95.41 (Market Cap Approx: $33b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
03/31/2021: $83.34 (Market Cap Approx: $29b, TTM Revenue: $604m)
04/30/2021: $85.77 (Market Cap Approx: $30b, TTM Revenue: $604m)

There’s a new sheriff in town as DDOG just barely bumps CRWD from the top spot. DDOG will report Q1 next week, and I think it will be a good one.

Crowdstrike (CRWD)
10/31/2020: $123.84
12/4/2020: $167.26
12/31/2020: $211.82 Market Cap Approx: $50b
01/29/2021: $215.80 Market Cap Approx: $51b
02/26/2021: $216.00 (Market Cap Approx: $51b, TTM Revenue: $762m)
03/31/2021: $182.51 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $875m)
04/30/2021: $208.51 (Market Cap Approx: $50b, TTM Revenue: $875m)

CRWD rebounded quite a bit this month, with highs well into the $220’s. I trimmed slightly, as I almost always do if something is up 20% or more during the month.

Docusign (DOCU)
12/31/2020: $222.30 Market Cap Approx: $47b
01/29/2021: $232.89 Market Cap Approx: $49b
02/26/2021: $226.66 (Market Cap Approx: $48b, TTM Revenue: $1.297b)
03/31/2021: $202.45 (Market Cap Approx: $43b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)
04/30/2021: $222.94 (Market Cap Approx: $47b, TTM Revenue: $1.453b)

DOCU was up around 15% at its high in April, but I couldn’t bring myself to trim. Looking forward to Q1 earnings, which they will report in a month or so.

Snowflake (SNOW)
03/31/2021: $229.28 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)
04/30/2021: $231.59 (Market Cap Approx: $68b, TTM Revenue: $592m)

I guess I have drunk the kool aid, after I wrote about that here: https://discussion.fool.com/snow-what-i-was-missing-34787302.asp… I’ve also had help from Muji – check out his Twitter chat with StockNovice – and am understanding more and more about what makes SNOW so special and dominant. They really do have an unparalleled offering for their customers.

Cloudflare (NET)
10/31/2020: $51.97
12/4/2020: $77.35
12/31/2020: $75.99 Market Cap Approx: $23b
01/29/2021: $76.66 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $389m)
02/26/2021: $73.97 (Market Cap Approx: $23b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
03/31/2021: $70.26 (Market Cap Approx: $22b, TTM Revenue: $431m)
04/30/2021: $84.74 (Market Cap Approx: $26b, TTM Revenue: $431m)

Wow! The rebound stock of the month is Cloudflare. I trimmed quite a bit…just over 25% of my position, but I added a little back today. If any of our stocks are expensive, it’s this one. But it’s also a fantastic company that is completely killing it. They also report earnings next week!

Etsy (ETSY)
10/31/2020: $121.59
12/4/2020: $155.03
12/31/2020: $177.91 Market Cap Approx: $24b
01/29/2021: $199.09 (Market Cap Approx: $27b, TTM Revenue: $1.378b)
02/26/2021: $220.27 (Market Cap Approx: $31b, TTM Revenue: $1.725b)
03/31/2021: $201.67 (Market Cap Approx: $28b, TTM Revenue: $1.725b)
04/30/2021: $198.79 (Market Cap Approx: $28b, TTM Revenue: $1.725b)

I added to Etsy. I think this is probably going to be a company that goes up in fits and starts, as the market accepts that they are a premier ecommerce company, growing much faster than ecommerce as a whole. Etsy reports next week, and I expect great things.

Bandwidth (BAND)
12/31/2020: $153.67 Market Cap Approx: $4.2b
01/29/2021: $178.13 (Market Cap Approx: $4.9b, TTM Revenue: $292m)
02/26/2021: $158.36 (Market Cap Approx: $4.4b, TTM Revenue: $343m)
03/31/2021: $126.74 (Market Cap Approx: $3.5b, TTM Revenue: $343m)
04/30/2021: $132.20 (Market Cap Approx: $3.6b, TTM Revenue: $343m)

I trimmed BAND a bit. Just don’t want to get ahead of my conviction. I’m comfortable with a mid sized position here. Earnings call is next week!

Upstart (UPST)
02/26/2021: $65.64 Market Cap Approx: $4.8b
03/31/2021: $128.86 (Market Cap Approx: $12b, TTM Revenue: $234m)
04/30/2021: $109.02 (Market Cap Approx: $10b, TTM Revenue: $234m)

Upstart cratered in March, hitting lows under $100. I have added and trimmed at various times during the month. Earnings call is in a couple weeks.

Lightspeed (LSPD)
02/26/2021: $68.42 Market Cap Approx: $8.1b
03/31/2021: $62.81 (Market Cap Approx: $7.4b, TTM Revenue: $176m)
04/30/2021: $69.81 (Market Cap Approx: $8.2b, TTM Revenue: $176m)

I added a tiny bit. Earnings in a few weeks!

Zoom and Twilio are two small positions that I won’t say much about. As already-giant companies, I expect their multiples will start to contract a bit as growth inevitably slows. Maybe I will hold, maybe I will sell.

Tiny positions
I bought into MGNI to go with TWOU (which I added a tiny bit to) and ASAN (which I have almost sold out of). These are basically watchlist sized positions. We’ll see where they go from here.

Closing Thoughts

In a hurry, so I’ll just say, have a great May everyone!

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2019-3…
Dec 2020 (contains links to all 2020 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2020-3…
Jan 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-012021-347…
Feb 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-022021-347…
Mar 2021: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-032021-347…

127 Likes

Hi Bear,

Do you have a link somewhere to your investment thesis for Bandwidth? It’s a company I’ve been looking into, but aside from the company’s own commentary and financial results, I find it challenging to find third party research. Both the company name and ticker symbol produce totally unrelated search results.

Anyways, they seem like an attractive picks and shovels play, being the underlying t1 network for companies like Zoom. What I wonder about is their competitive positioning. How likely is it that Zoom, for example, tries to build their own t1 network to take Bandwidth out of the equation?

I’m interested in your thoughts.

3 Likes

Hi Bobby,

Do you have a link somewhere to your investment thesis for Bandwidth?

I’d start you with WSM007’s April review: https://discussion.fool.com/wsm8217s-portfolio-review-end-of-apr…
He mentions and links to a thread both of us contributed to. It’s a pretty good read. We expect a gaudy growth rate, though inorganic, at least for 2021. It’s not obvious after that, but anything over 25% or so, and this is ridiculously cheap. “Ridiculously cheap” isn’t (and shouldn’t be) the thesis, but I admit it’s part of it.

Anyways, they seem like an attractive picks and shovels play, being the underlying t1 network for companies like Zoom. What I wonder about is their competitive positioning. How likely is it that Zoom, for example, tries to build their own t1 network to take Bandwidth out of the equation?

I think this is a fantastic question, and you could also say, if Tier 1 networks are such an advantage, why hasn’t Twilio built their own? What worries me more than the threat that someone will is the fact that no one has. Maybe it’s the equivalent of a commodity. Even so, Bandwidth might be like a utility company…the question would be how much market share they’ll get. Seems to be growing fast, but I need to know my limitations here – this isn’t the typical type of company I understand and invest in. I hope to learn more when they report this week.

Bear

11 Likes

Thanks Bear,

This space is kind of mysterious to me. Such a valuation difference between Twilio and Bandwidth, and then also between Bandwidth and Vonage. It perplexes me. I sort of understand the differences between the firms, but I wish I had a better understanding so I could understand how much of the valuation difference is driven by difference in the company’s quality of business.

1 Like