Bear's Portfolio through Apr 2019

My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of

Jan +22.48%
Feb +33.46%
Mar +38.27%
Apr +46.86%

I continue to do my discriminate portfolio jockeying. I base my trims, adds, buys, and sells on thoughts like I expressed in this post:

In April I made one large move based on valuation: I cut my OKTA position by 70%. As I said last month when I sold out of ZS, I am not going to cash, rather, I intend to shift the money to other favorites that I think still have more room to run. (By the way, I’m sure I’ll get it dead wrong sometimes, but in April ZS was down about 4%.)

My cash position is temporarily over 20% again, but I’ll be looking to deploy some of that soon.

Now let’s talk about what else has been going on in April.

Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts):…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts):…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts):…
Jan 2019:…
Feb 2019:…
Mar 2019:…

New 2019
January - DOCU
February - SAIL
March - TTD (again), ESTC (again) and MDB (again)
April - None

Sold 2018
January - SHOP, SQ
February - WIX, MDB
March - PSTG, ZS
April - None

My Current Allocations

Ticker	Curr%	Buy/S	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
TWLO	14.4%	-11%	6.2%	53.6%
NEWR	11.1%	0%	6.6%	30.0%
AYX	10.5%	0%	5.7%	49.0%
TDOC	5.2%	40%	2.1%	14.7%
SAIL	5.2%	0%	-1.5%	20.3%
DOCU	4.8%	0%	9.2%	41.4%
TTD	4.4%	0%	12.0%	90.8%
SMAR	4.2%	0%	3.5%	70.3%
OKTA	4.1%	-70%	25.7%	63.1%
MDB	3.7%	100%	-4.1%	68.3%
ESTC	3.4%	0%	7.1%	19.7%
ZEN	2.3%	0%	3.2%	50.4%
ARNA	1.8%	0%	2.1%	17.5%
options	0.7%			
cash	24.2%			

The big 3
After cutting OKTA to a smaller position, I’m down to three really large positions: TWLO, NEWR, and AYX. These are the companies that I believe have the best balance of several factors. The most important factors are:

  1. I have confidence in management and in the business model for each.
  2. I think they can continue to grow rapidly if not accelerate, which to me is the key to our type of investing. We don’t see “bargains” anymore. All we can do is try to identify which companies will continue rapid growth longer than the market foresees.
  3. They seem to be priced reasonably relative to their growth rates.

TWLO reported this afternoon and I trimmed a small amount at $140/share. It’s still a huge 14.4% position for me…and that’s still a little more than I’d like invested in any company…but it’s also hard to find companies I like as much as Twilio.

NEWR reports in two weeks, and I’m hoping revenue growth will accelerate.

AYX reports tomorrow, and I am not sure what to expect. Still haven’t really gotten comfortable with how the accounting change will affect them.

The big reduction this month: OKTA
OKTA was up more than 25% this month and the PS ratio was over 29 to bring them to a market cap of almost $12 billion. This is a company with $399m in TTM revenue. They’re growing a bit faster than NEWR, but NEWR is a $6 billion company with $446m in TTM revenue. Literally half the price and with MORE revenue. I cut OKTA to a 4.1% position.

The rest
I doubled MDB from a very small base, but it’s still just a 3.7% position.
I added 40% to my TDOC position, because it just seemed unsustainably out of favor and beaten down, but I still don’t have a high conviction, and won’t be adding more even at these levels.
That’s really it…I didn’t sell out of anything or buy anything new. I watched ZM and others with interest, but didn’t see any screaming buys. Hoping to find something new, or get some opportunities to add to companies I already own.

Wrapping Up

I realize it’s a little strange that I only have 3 large positions now. But with a sizeable cash position and several 4% or 5% positions in companies I like, I can kind of be happy whatever happens. If something goes down, I can add. If it goes up, well, at least I held some.

Just the way I am seeing things. Happy May, everyone!


“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982

“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry

“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96

“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna