Bear's Portfolio through Dec 2019

My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of

Jan +22.48%
Feb +33.46%
Mar +38.27%
Apr +46.86%
May +43.50%
Jun +58.27%
Aug2 +65.38%
Aug(31) +62.13%
Sep +35.64%
Oct +32.16%
Nov +56.29%
Dec +36.85%

Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts):…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts):…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts):…
Jan 2019:…
Feb 2019:…
Mar 2019:…
Apr 2019:…
May 2019:…
Jun 2019:…
Jul (Aug2) 2019:…
Aug 2019:…
Sep 2019:…
Oct 2019:…
Nov 2019:…

New 2019
January - DOCU
February - SAIL
March - TTD (again), ESTC (again) and MDB (again)
April - None
May - SQ (again), ZS (again), EVBG, PLAN
Jul - MDB (again)
Sep - CRWD (again), DDOG
Oct - none
Nov - SQ (again)

Sold 2018
January - SHOP, SQ
February - WIX, MDB
March - PSTG, ZS
April - None
Jul - None
Nov - PINS
Dec - ZS

My Current Allocations

Ticker	Curr%	Buy/S	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
CRWD	19.5%	86%	-14.0%	#DIV/0!
AYX	16.6%	-21%	-11.9%	68.3%
ESTC	15.5%	23%	-19.0%	-10.0%
DDOG	8.3%	142%	-7.3%	#DIV/0!
SMAR	8.1%	-40%	-5.3%	80.7%
MDB	5.9%	-57%	-11.5%	57.2%
SQ	4.7%	25%	-9.5%	11.5%
ZM	3.1%	NEW	-8.7%	#DIV/0!
LVGO	2.6%	NEW	-9.5%	#DIV/0!
HUBS	2.4%	NEW	5.0%	26.1%
options	7.2%	(mostly AYX and CRWD)	
cash	6.0%			


Note that these are percentages of shares held only, and I don’t include my options positions by company. As you can see, my options position now accounts for 7.2% of my portfolio (vs 2.9% a month ago), and this skews things a lot. Actually I didn’t really decrease my AYX position – I increased it by selling some of my shares and buying call options. Further discussion of options isn’t appropriate here, but I just wanted to clarify.


ZM - I finally broke down, as it’s roughly half as expensive as it used to be by any valuation metric. Great company…I wonder how long they can grow like this, but as Darth pointed out just a day or two ago, they have a lot of optionality.

HUBS - This is an interesting company that a lot of us were in a couple years ago. They’re not blowing the doors off with growth any more, but they’re profitable now, and still growing, and they kind of remind me of PAYC. I thought I’d take a tiny position and start following them again.

LVGO - I took a tiny position here too, just to make myself follow it. Tchalla brought it to the board and it is really interesting…obviously I expect the triple-digit growth to slow and then we’ll see where they land, but the under-$2.5 billion valuation is not something easy to find among companies with SaaS-like margins and rapid growth. Even on a TDOC-like trajectory they could easily double (it’s just a matter of when…might very well take years, and that would compare unfavorably to what I think AYX should do, for example).


ZS - I know some are going to hold a smaller position and see what happens, but personally there are enough question marks for me that I’m just out. Unless growth is about to tick back up in a major way, it’s not like they’re looking like a bargain or anything anyway.

Added to or Trimmed

AYX - Built it up through options because I really do think the selling was due to “weird December stuff” like I wrote about here:

CRWD - Roughly doubled it. These prices make no sense.

ESTC - added some. Less confident than AYX or CRWD, but the price is insane.

DDOG - more than doubled it. I’m not as confident as Saul, but they’re killing it right now in a major way. I don’t see a lot of other things to buy that are doing as well as Datadog.

SQ - added a bit. Having a hard time finding good companies to invest in right now, so this isn’t a bad one to park money in. I imagine it must be near its floor (and of course I mean a “floor” for when markets are acting somewhat normally), and I still think it will continue to do well and grow well for several years, just not as incredibly as others of ours. But the valuation is in line with that story.

SMAR - Sold a good chunk. I’m simply not a fan of the growing losses. Perhaps it doesn’t make sense to trim here and add to ESTC (which has the same issue), but ESTC at least is downright cheap. SMAR seems more fairly valued (though not expensive).

MDB - The slowing growth was a little alarming, so I didn’t want this to be a large position until I see what the Atlas trajectory looks like in coming quarters. If MDB becomes a ~40% grower or less, its competitive strengths might be enough that it could still do well long term, but we couldn’t expect it to grow as rapidly as we’d like.


COUP and OKTA are two that just seem so expensive to me. I’m still conflicted on ROKU. TTD, one of the few things in our universe not down in Dec, is still making me look stupid after all this time, but it seems expensive as well. DOCU seems to be holding up well, too…perhaps I underestimated them.

Any fans of these stocks, please keep discussing all of these. Your thoughts are certainly helpful to me, and I appreciate it!

Wrapping Up

Here’s what I think we’re seeing right now:

The market can be a blunt instrument when shifting between sectors or even within them. Earlier this year, growth was king – now, it’s something else. But I, like many of us here, am attempting to take a holistic approach here and really looking for companies that aren’t simply flashing the right signals, but where also things under the hood are as they should be.

Return-wise, this year wasn’t as amazing for me as 2018 or even 2017, but it was still more than I could have dreamed a few years ago. If we are able to make even 20% or 30% consistently, as Saul has for some 30 years, we’ll be able to secure a solid financial future through this fun and rewarding enterprise we call investing. Can’t beat that.

Happy New Year!


“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982

“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry

“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96

“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna


COUP and OKTA are two that just seem so expensive to me.

Hi Bear, Coupa hit a July high of $146, but then in September, in the big meltdown, when our “expensive” stocks lost 40% or 50% of their stock price, Coupa was just down 12% to $128. Then in October it actually hit a new high, of $157, up $11 from its July high. It dropped again to $128, but is now up to $153.60, well above the July high, and within 2.4% of that all-time high.

Maybe the market has been telling us that it’s not so expensive after all.



(Long Coupa at 11.5% of my portfolio).


Hi Bear,

Permit me a moment to fondly recall two years ago on this board when you and I struggled to figure out what the heck OKTA does. Thankfully, brittleroc gave us some clarity.

I hope LVGO works out better for us than SAIL did. Cybersecurity remains a hazardous industry to invest in because it is so highly-fragmented and highly-competitive. Who has more than a very narrow moat in the cybersecurity industry? No one, I’d say.

In closing, thank you for all you do for this board. Your excellent “monthlies” are a must read for me.



Permit me a moment to fondly recall two years ago on this board when you and I struggled to figure out what the heck OKTA does.

I definitely still do! :joy:

Like Saul, I don’t claim special knowledge of tech, whether the industry overall, or even our companies. But the numbers speak loudly.

Thanks for the kind words. Glad the monthly summaries help you. Doing them helps me!

I hope LVGO works out better for us than SAIL did.

Just to clarify, LVGO is not a cyber security company at all! It’s a platform where people can monitor their health data (esp people with diabetes, but I have to think there’s optionality there). Read tchalla’s great posts! And you can listen to the CEO explain it here: