My 2019 Portfolio Performance YTD as of
Jan +22.48% Feb +33.46% Mar +38.27% Apr +46.86% May +43.50% Jun +58.27% Aug2 +65.38% Aug(31) +62.13% Sep +35.64% Oct +32.16% Nov +56.29% Dec +36.85%
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Jan 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jan-2019-3…
Feb 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-feb-2019-3…
Mar 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-mar-2019-3…
Apr 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-apr-2019-3…
May 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-may-2019-3…
Jun 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jun-2019-3…
Jul (Aug2) 2019:https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-aug2-2019-…
Aug 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-aug-2019-3…
Sep 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-sep-2019-3…
Oct 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-oct-2019-3…
Nov 2019: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-nov-2019-3…
January - DOCU
February - SAIL
March - TTD (again), ESTC (again) and MDB (again)
April - None
May - SQ (again), ZS (again), EVBG, PLAN
Jun - CRWD, FSLY, WORK, TWOU
Jul - MDB (again)
Aug - PINS, OKTA
Sep - CRWD (again), DDOG
Oct - none
Nov - SQ (again)
Dec - ZM, HUBS, LVGO
January - SHOP, SQ
February - WIX, MDB
March - PSTG, ZS
April - None
May - SAIL, ZEN, NEWR, OKTA
Jun - MDB, ARNA
Jul - None
Aug - EVBG, CRWD, FSLY, PLAN, TWOU
Sep - SQ, TDOC, DOCU
Oct - TTD, OKTA, TWLO
Nov - PINS
Dec - ZS
My Current Allocations
Ticker Curr% Buy/S Mo Ch YTD Ch CRWD 19.5% 86% -14.0% #DIV/0! AYX 16.6% -21% -11.9% 68.3% ESTC 15.5% 23% -19.0% -10.0% DDOG 8.3% 142% -7.3% #DIV/0! SMAR 8.1% -40% -5.3% 80.7% MDB 5.9% -57% -11.5% 57.2% SQ 4.7% 25% -9.5% 11.5% ZM 3.1% NEW -8.7% #DIV/0! LVGO 2.6% NEW -9.5% #DIV/0! HUBS 2.4% NEW 5.0% 26.1% options 7.2% (mostly AYX and CRWD) cash 6.0%
WHY I DID WHAT I DID THIS MONTH
Note that these are percentages of shares held only, and I don’t include my options positions by company. As you can see, my options position now accounts for 7.2% of my portfolio (vs 2.9% a month ago), and this skews things a lot. Actually I didn’t really decrease my AYX position – I increased it by selling some of my shares and buying call options. Further discussion of options isn’t appropriate here, but I just wanted to clarify.
ZM - I finally broke down, as it’s roughly half as expensive as it used to be by any valuation metric. Great company…I wonder how long they can grow like this, but as Darth pointed out just a day or two ago, they have a lot of optionality.
HUBS - This is an interesting company that a lot of us were in a couple years ago. They’re not blowing the doors off with growth any more, but they’re profitable now, and still growing, and they kind of remind me of PAYC. I thought I’d take a tiny position and start following them again.
LVGO - I took a tiny position here too, just to make myself follow it. Tchalla brought it to the board and it is really interesting…obviously I expect the triple-digit growth to slow and then we’ll see where they land, but the under-$2.5 billion valuation is not something easy to find among companies with SaaS-like margins and rapid growth. Even on a TDOC-like trajectory they could easily double (it’s just a matter of when…might very well take years, and that would compare unfavorably to what I think AYX should do, for example).
ZS - I know some are going to hold a smaller position and see what happens, but personally there are enough question marks for me that I’m just out. Unless growth is about to tick back up in a major way, it’s not like they’re looking like a bargain or anything anyway.
Added to or Trimmed
AYX - Built it up through options because I really do think the selling was due to “weird December stuff” like I wrote about here: https://discussion.fool.com/december-is-weird-34366738.aspx
CRWD - Roughly doubled it. These prices make no sense.
ESTC - added some. Less confident than AYX or CRWD, but the price is insane.
DDOG - more than doubled it. I’m not as confident as Saul, but they’re killing it right now in a major way. I don’t see a lot of other things to buy that are doing as well as Datadog.
SQ - added a bit. Having a hard time finding good companies to invest in right now, so this isn’t a bad one to park money in. I imagine it must be near its floor (and of course I mean a “floor” for when markets are acting somewhat normally), and I still think it will continue to do well and grow well for several years, just not as incredibly as others of ours. But the valuation is in line with that story.
SMAR - Sold a good chunk. I’m simply not a fan of the growing losses. Perhaps it doesn’t make sense to trim here and add to ESTC (which has the same issue), but ESTC at least is downright cheap. SMAR seems more fairly valued (though not expensive).
MDB - The slowing growth was a little alarming, so I didn’t want this to be a large position until I see what the Atlas trajectory looks like in coming quarters. If MDB becomes a ~40% grower or less, its competitive strengths might be enough that it could still do well long term, but we couldn’t expect it to grow as rapidly as we’d like.
COUP and OKTA are two that just seem so expensive to me. I’m still conflicted on ROKU. TTD, one of the few things in our universe not down in Dec, is still making me look stupid after all this time, but it seems expensive as well. DOCU seems to be holding up well, too…perhaps I underestimated them.
Any fans of these stocks, please keep discussing all of these. Your thoughts are certainly helpful to me, and I appreciate it!
Here’s what I think we’re seeing right now:
The market can be a blunt instrument when shifting between sectors or even within them. Earlier this year, growth was king – now, it’s something else. But I, like many of us here, am attempting to take a holistic approach here and really looking for companies that aren’t simply flashing the right signals, but where also things under the hood are as they should be.
Return-wise, this year wasn’t as amazing for me as 2018 or even 2017, but it was still more than I could have dreamed a few years ago. If we are able to make even 20% or 30% consistently, as Saul has for some 30 years, we’ll be able to secure a solid financial future through this fun and rewarding enterprise we call investing. Can’t beat that.
Happy New Year!
“I guarantee nothing but hard work.” - Bear Bryant, Alabama Football Coach, 1958 - 1982
“A man’s gotta know his limitations.” - Dirty Harry
“If you must tell me your opinions, tell me what you believe in. I have plenty of doubts of my own.” attributed to Goethe (but not sourced)
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein
“exponential compounded growth does not fit the analytical backward looking skill sets of most Wall street analysts” - mauser96
“I presume the thing is to ride the momentum for the short squeeze and exit fast with enough money for a few months supply of whisky before everyone realises it’s a value trap.” - Strelna