My 2020 Portfolio Performance YTD as of
Jan +23.79% Feb +26.86% Mar +10.12%
March feels like it’s been 2 years. Obviously I’m thrilled and frankly surprised to be up for the year when the S&P is down roughly 20%. At my low on March 16, I was at only 84% of what I started the year with (which was pretty low to begin with as AYX was at $100 and CRWD was about $50).
I’ve been able to cut the chaff, and I’m down to 8 positions. I’ve also done a ton of trading…selling a few shares when things are up and buying them back when things are down. Obviously I only do small amounts, lest I get caught holding too much cash on a huge up day. I think a lot of us are learning how impossible it is to time the market. (It does seem possible to trade around ranges for individual stocks, though. Example: adding to AYX at $90 and trimming at $100 recently)
Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2019-3…
January - PINS
February - none
March - OKTA
January - none
February - HUBS
March - SQ, LVGO, MDB
My Current Allocations
Ticker Curr% Buy/S Mo Ch YTD Ch AYX 21.5% 33% -32.1% -4.9% CRWD 16.5% -9% -4.6% 11.7% ESTC 12.6% 7% -19.7% -13.2% ZM 10.3% 150% 39.3% 114.8% SMAR 7.0% -8% -9.7% -7.6% PINS 5.5% 150% -19.1% -17.2% DDOG 4.1% -43% -18.8% -4.8% OKTA 1.7% NEW -3.5% 6.0% options 4.2% cash 16.5%
WHY I DID WHAT I DID THIS MONTH
I got back into OKTA at under $100. Couldn’t pass that up. It’s a very resilient stock, kind of like ZM, but for both of them currently (at ~$122 and ~$146) I don’t see a ton of upside (relative to AYX under $100 or CRWD under $60 etc). So it’s a small position, and I probably won’t add unless I get another crazy bargain.
MDB - They reported another very disappointing quarter, so I sold what I had left.
LVGO - Never had very much of this one. It may do great, but I’ll stick with higher confidence companies at this juncture.
SQ - Of companies I owned, SQ will be the most affected by the coronavirus, in my opinion. Didn’t want to mess with that.
Added to or Trimmed
Everything. I’ve been adding and trimming opportunistically through the volatility, as I noted at the top of this post.
PINS - This went from a tiny position to a mid sized position. It was at $35+ a few months ago and got down to under $11. Even though its ability to roar back over $30 is TBD, I don’t see a lot of long term risk, so I couldn’t resist adding.
DDOG - I continued to trim. This one just never got cheap, so when I want to raise cash I look to it often. They’re growing like mad for now, but they’re already a $10b+ company, and I’m just not sure what the TAM is for what they do. I expect growth to slow over the next few quarters, but I guess time will tell.
AYX - I’ve added net 33% more shares. How could I not when they’re down more than most other things? Maybe it’s like CRWD which got down to $33…just took one strong report to bounce like 75%.
ZM - Though I’m not hopeful for much near-term upside, I’ve actually added more than I’ve trimmed. I’ve had great success selling calls on this one. Selling a covered call means if it goes up enough I will lose some of my shares, but at some level I would have trimmed anyway, so I don’t mind. Still, the amount of traction Zoom has gotten through physical distancing is staggering. I’ll leave you with one example. Just watch 10 seconds or so. https://youtu.be/6CLmAyMFMJQ?t=772
I hope everyone is staying home and safe. We’ll get through all this. I’m still trying to figure out how much the world will be changed on the other side of it all. Hopefully for the better!
“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein