Bear's Portfolio through Mar 2020

My 2020 Portfolio Performance YTD as of

Jan +23.79%
Feb +26.86%
Mar +10.12%

March feels like it’s been 2 years. Obviously I’m thrilled and frankly surprised to be up for the year when the S&P is down roughly 20%. At my low on March 16, I was at only 84% of what I started the year with (which was pretty low to begin with as AYX was at $100 and CRWD was about $50).

I’ve been able to cut the chaff, and I’m down to 8 positions. I’ve also done a ton of trading…selling a few shares when things are up and buying them back when things are down. Obviously I only do small amounts, lest I get caught holding too much cash on a huge up day. I think a lot of us are learning how impossible it is to time the market. (It does seem possible to trade around ranges for individual stocks, though. Example: adding to AYX at $90 and trimming at $100 recently)

Previous Month Summaries
Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts):…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts):…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts):…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts):…

Jan 2020:…
Feb 2020:…

New 2020
January - PINS
February - none
March - OKTA

Sold 2020
January - none
February - HUBS
March - SQ, LVGO, MDB

My Current Allocations

Ticker	Curr%	Buy/S	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
AYX	21.5%	33%	-32.1%	-4.9%
CRWD	16.5%	-9%	-4.6%	11.7%
ESTC	12.6%	7%	-19.7%	-13.2%
ZM	10.3%	150%	39.3%	114.8%
SMAR	7.0%	-8%	-9.7%	-7.6%
PINS	5.5%	150%	-19.1%	-17.2%
DDOG	4.1%	-43%	-18.8%	-4.8%
OKTA	1.7%	NEW	-3.5%	6.0%
options	4.2%			
cash	16.5%			



I got back into OKTA at under $100. Couldn’t pass that up. It’s a very resilient stock, kind of like ZM, but for both of them currently (at ~$122 and ~$146) I don’t see a ton of upside (relative to AYX under $100 or CRWD under $60 etc). So it’s a small position, and I probably won’t add unless I get another crazy bargain.


MDB - They reported another very disappointing quarter, so I sold what I had left.……

LVGO - Never had very much of this one. It may do great, but I’ll stick with higher confidence companies at this juncture.

SQ - Of companies I owned, SQ will be the most affected by the coronavirus, in my opinion. Didn’t want to mess with that.

Added to or Trimmed

Everything. I’ve been adding and trimming opportunistically through the volatility, as I noted at the top of this post.

PINS - This went from a tiny position to a mid sized position. It was at $35+ a few months ago and got down to under $11. Even though its ability to roar back over $30 is TBD, I don’t see a lot of long term risk, so I couldn’t resist adding.

DDOG - I continued to trim. This one just never got cheap, so when I want to raise cash I look to it often. They’re growing like mad for now, but they’re already a $10b+ company, and I’m just not sure what the TAM is for what they do. I expect growth to slow over the next few quarters, but I guess time will tell.

AYX - I’ve added net 33% more shares. How could I not when they’re down more than most other things? Maybe it’s like CRWD which got down to $33…just took one strong report to bounce like 75%.

ZM - Though I’m not hopeful for much near-term upside, I’ve actually added more than I’ve trimmed. I’ve had great success selling calls on this one. Selling a covered call means if it goes up enough I will lose some of my shares, but at some level I would have trimmed anyway, so I don’t mind. Still, the amount of traction Zoom has gotten through physical distancing is staggering. I’ll leave you with one example. Just watch 10 seconds or so.


I hope everyone is staying home and safe. We’ll get through all this. I’m still trying to figure out how much the world will be changed on the other side of it all. Hopefully for the better!


“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein


LVGO - Never had very much of this one. It may do great, but I’ll stick with higher confidence companies at this juncture.

Hi Bear, can you share thoughts on why LVGO is a low confidence stock for you?

I recently looked at the company and was quite impressed.

  • They have a product that seems to work well and they are gaining good traction in the market
  • Right incentives for clients and members
  • Super high growth and rapidly improving margins (operating profit and net earnings margins)
  • Recurring revenue with high gross margins (>70%) and >110% DBNER
  • High Net Promoter Score of +64
  • No debt and $392m net cash (vs. FCF of -$67m in 2019)
  • Founder led (~10% ownership)
  • Huge TAM.


  • 2 channel partners make up 51% of sales
  • share price has gone nowhere since IPO (I don’t understand why)

Overall, it seems like a stock that ticks plenty of boxes in this board.


Hi Bear, can you share thoughts on why LVGO is a low confidence stock for you?

Main reasons:

  • My personal lack of familiarity with the company (I had only owned it a few months)
  • The size (TTM revenue of just $170m – less than Zoom made in their most recent Q)
  • Potential regulatory issues since they’re in the medical field (though I have no clue about such things)

Mostly the first two. Tiny companies are harder to follow, and revenue is easier to grow at a triple digit pace when it is off a small base…not sure those rates will continue.


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LVGO is not priced for triple digit growth. Avg estimates have growth for this year at ~67%. The upper end of their guidance was for 70%. I’m guessing actual number will come in at least 90%. If they hit triple digits again in FY20 it will fly. The growth is impressive even compared to some of the best companies discussed here when they were similar size.

It’s even more impressive how the business is scaling and moving towards profitability while growing like this.


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