Bear's Portfolio through Oct 2020

My 2020 Portfolio Performance YTD as of


Jan +23.79%
Feb +26.86%
Mar +10.12%
Apr +31.49%
May +62.13%
Jun +118.30%
Jul +153.87%
Aug +210.88% (actually, as of midday 9/3)
Sep +239.00%
Oct +237.95%

My Current Allocations


Ticker	Curr%	Mo Ch	YTD Ch
ZM	25.5%	-2.0%	577.4%
CRWD	18.1%	-9.8%	148.3%
DOCU	10.5%	-6.0%	172.9%
NET	5.0%	26.6%	204.6%
ETSY	3.7%	0.0%	174.5%
SHOP	3.6%	-9.5%	132.8%
PTON	3.4%	11.1%	288.1%
FSLY	0.9%	-32.2%	216.4%
ZEN	0.7%	7.8%	44.8%
options	0.9%
cash	28.5%

*** “options” includes non-LEAPs only…I included LEAPs in the above portfolio percentages for each position.

New 2020
January - PINS
February - none
March - OKTA
April - ROKU
May - LVGO (again), WORK, FSLY, PLAN
June - DOCU, LLNW
July - PD, PTON, TCDA
August - NET, ETSY
September - DOCU (again), ZEN
October - SHOP

Sold 2020
January - none
February - HUBS
March - SQ, LVGO, MDB
April - OKTA
May - PLAN, PINS, SMAR, DDOG
June - ESTC, WORK
July - DOCU, LVGO
August - PD
September - TCDA, ROKU, AYX
October - LLNW

I have 3 top confidence positions
ZM
CRWD
DOCU

A lot of times friends and family who are new to investing say, “Sure you have a 25% ZM position…but that’s because it’s grown that big. Now it’s gone up so much it’s too late to buy.” If I believed that, I would sell some shares! There’s no difference in me having 25% or buying 25% today. (Yes, I know sometimes people don’t trim because of tax consequences, etc, but the point is, I make my conviction match my allocations at all times.)

I have added a lot to all 3 of these in October. Obviously I like ZM the best, and that’s why I allocate 25% of my portfolio to it. Yes, that is an awful lot. I like CRWD to an extreme extent as well. Both of these have incredible track records with no flaws in the numbers that I can discern, and I believe it is likely they will keep doing wonderfully. I feel similarly confident about DOCU, but probably won’t make it quite as big as ZM or CRWD, because I think they have more upside potential (CRWD is growing at an insane pace and ZM is taking over the world).

I have 4 medium confidence positions
NET
ETSY
SHOP
PTON

I have reduced NET and PTON based on confidence level, and I have added to ETSY. SHOP is new (again…I had it back in 2017 and 2018) and I re-started it yesterday when they reported amazing earnings.

These medium confidence positions are for one reason or another small – for now. I will most likely add opportunistically, or get rid of them. Don’t know yet, or I would have done it already!

I have 2 radar positions
FSLY
ZEN

I won’t say anything about these “radar” positions because they’re not large enough to move the needle. Why keep them at all? I probably won’t. Just watching for now.

Wow. After the week we just had, it does not in any way feel like I’m up 238% this year. But taking a step back, I realize that what has happened to our stocks in 2020 is not normal. And as always, what they have done is not what they will keep doing forever. That’s just not how it works. Stocks go up and down all the time. In the long run, if we pick great companies, they’ll go up more than they go down.

Stay long, stay safe, be kind, be happy.

Bear

“Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.” - Attributed to Albert Einstein

Previous Month Summaries

Dec 2016 (contains links to all 2016 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-at-the-end-of-2016-…
Dec 2017 (contains links to all 2017 monthly posts): http://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2017-32…
Dec 2018 (contains links to all 2018 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2018-3…
Dec 2019 (contains links to all 2019 monthly posts): https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-dec-2019-3…

Jan 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jan-2020-3…
Feb 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-feb-2020-3…
Mar 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-mar-2020-3…
Apr 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-apr-2020-3…
May 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-may-2020-3…
Jun 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jun-2020-3…
Jul 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-jul-2020-3…
Aug 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-aug-2020-3…
Sep 2020: https://discussion.fool.com/bear39s-portfolio-through-sep-2020-3…

170 Likes

Bear,

I noticed in your allocation you have 28% cash which exceeds your allocation to any one company/stock. I know Saul posted that he did generate some cash for emergency fund but unclear to me how much cash he is holding. I wonder if you (or Saul or others) could comment on how you allocate funds into cash, if after a week like this you use cash to buy into companies (I almost wrote stocks!) that are now cheaper than they were a week ago and how you think about cash allocation with regard to those of use with new funds coming in from a job or non-stock investments versus those (a la Saul) who no longer have new funds coming in.

I have new funds coming in (a job) and an emergency cash holding. Personally, I transfer money from my checking account into the stock market about every 3 months or so (when I hit a specific amount of cash) and then the cash get almost immediately deployed into my best current idea.

My portfolio is 90% in a taxable account.

Many thanks,

RWRocks

2 Likes

I noticed in your allocation you have 28% cash which exceeds your allocation to any one company/stock. I know Saul posted that he did generate some cash for emergency fund but unclear to me how much cash he is holding. I wonder if you (or Saul or others) could comment on how you allocate funds into cash, if after a week like this you use cash to buy into companies (I almost wrote stocks!) that are now cheaper than they were a week ago and how you think about cash allocation with regard to those of use with new funds coming in from a job or non-stock investments versus those (a la Saul) who no longer have new funds coming in.

Happy to answer this (once), but it’s off topic so please no discussion!

Saul has said the cash he set aside will not be put back in the market. Mine for the most part probably will. I always keep a little cash (5 to 10%) since I’m retired and have no money coming in, but nearly 30% is way too much. But I allocate as my confidence dictates. You’ll probably see my medium positions get built up soon…or maybe I’ll find some other companies.

Of course, I can’t tell you what to do with your portfolio. (No one can)

Bear

12 Likes