Bank of America and Apple together has over $160 B gains. What are the realistic chances the Berky can replicate such enormous equity gains in future? Any price assumption should factor this.
Those who are railing about markets should also keep in mind that the “current overvalued” market allowed these paper gains.
“Bank of America and Apple together has over $160 B gains. What are the realistic chances the Berky can replicate such enormous equity gains in future? Any price assumption should factor this.”
Berkshire equity portfolio is at 350B. Give it a % (insert your number) haircut for overvaluation. Then plug in your expected return rate to the portfolio and it would appear the question is “when” not “if” it will it grow another 160B. This doesn’t even assume new positions adding to the total.
Missing the central point. The point is not about BAC and AAPL, whether they will continue to grow, etc. The point what are the chances/ probability in future Berkshire will be able to make equity investments that will create these kind of value.
Missing the central point. The point is not about BAC and AAPL, whether they will continue to grow, etc. The point what are the chances/ probability in future Berkshire will be able to make equity investments that will create these kind of value.
I want to almost assign a very low 5% to 10%.
What % did you put on them getting the existing gains? Going forward, given more available $'s should be slightly greater probability than previous assumptions.
You are basing this on what? Within Berkshire context, it is extremely difficult for anyone to be good, leave alone great.
Berkshire, its shareholders have seen a value creation of $130 B via single equity investment. That’s the bar. To be considered great they have to clear this bar at a much higher clip.
In any case, it is sad to see People still think Berkshire as some sort of hedge fund that is going to make great equity bets. WEB had tried very hard to reposition Berkshire as collection of “operating companies” and clearly he has still some work to do.
“In any case, it is sad to see People still think Berkshire as some sort of hedge fund that is going to make great equity bets. WEB had tried very hard to reposition Berkshire as collection of “operating companies” and clearly he has still some work to do.”