Bert Hochfeld article

I’m a new member of this board. I want to thank you all, especially Saul. I’ve learned a ton in these few months. Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

Found today an interesting new Bert Hochfeld article:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399094-recovery-is-almost-…

cheers,

olocli

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These picks seem to be all based on recovery plays for value. I’m not sure why anybody would be ignoring sales execution or competitive advantage as discussed in the article.

Bert on sales execution:

It can be almost impossible to handicap those companies with issues in sales execution. Even the best companies can have sales execution issues without any deterioration in the underlying story.

The best companies are not having sales issues. Look at Cloudflare, they mention every call how well sales is performing, sales is discussed on their earnings calls almost as much as engineering/product. Then look at CrowdStrike which talks about ‘unit economics’ and an efficient sales team.

Bert on Anaplan:

At the start of 2020, the company had some sales execution issues and there was turnover in senior sales management.

Turnover in senior sales management is a serious red flag.

Bert on Dynatrace vs DataDog:

I think there is every reason to own both names in a portfolio and not attempt at this point to determine an either/or answer in terms of evaluating technology or determining which might be a better stock to own

Why handicap ourselves again on not trying to evaluate the tech? In addition to ignoring sales execution, we are doubly handicapping ourselves with this type of ‘recovery/value’ strategy.

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Hi Olocli

I appreciate the fact that you are new to the board, but posting a link without providing your own thoughts about the content is OT for our board.

Why do you think the article is interesting? And why do you think the article is interesting for the discussions we seek to have here?

Furthermore, the article you link to is what we call “a list of stocks” which is also OT for our board.

The board rules are posted every Monday — Let us all strive for a clutter-free board in 2021 :slight_smile:

Thanks

Benjamin
(Assistant Board Manager)

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These picks seem to be all based on recovery plays for value. I’m not sure why anybody would be ignoring sales execution or competitive advantage as discussed in the article.

Hi wpr,
I agree with you. I was very disappointed with Bert’s picks and thought he was picking most of his companies on the basis of “Let’s hope for a turnaround”. He should know better than that.
Best,
Saul

37 Likes

I am with Saul on this. I used to follow Bert and I feel he’s excellent in his technical analysis but it does appear that his strategy may not be the best from an investment and timing standpoints.

One of the most important lessons I’ve learnt from Saul is to be “Pragmatic”. The developer in me sometimes reasons to hold onto or shun a stock BUT at the end I remind myself that … the reason I’m investing is to increase the value of my investment! That’s the “ONLY GOAL”, Very Simple! . There are many business/ initiatives out there that I like from the bottom of my heart and aligns with my philosophy of life and living but they are not positioned to give me the investment returns I want. So, why would I invest in those?

Talking about differences in investing ideologies…some of you who follow this board closely may note that most of the stocks in my portfolio matches those of Saul. Here are a few differences and my thinking about them…

#1. Saul has NET in this top 3 positions whereas mine are CRWD, DDOG, SNOW.

#2. I have SHOP and FSLY which Saul doesn’t.

We all know very well why Saul has NET as one of his top three. And I think I’ve made it clear ( in my previous posts) why I’ve been an early investor in SNOW.

And though I own both FSLY and NET, I still feel FSLY is going to prove itself and be a big winner. ( this is where I’m sounding like Bert :)). Many times in this board, I’ve called out that WebAssembly is relatively new and what FSLY is doing is going to shape how applications are going to be built on the edge in the future. The Cloudflare CEO is a perhaps the best out there when it comes to keeping Wallstreet happy. Sometimes I wish he was the CEO of FSLY! I think NET is trying to bring a lot of half-baked products to the market. Read the feedback of the tweets here about Cloudflare Pages: https://twitter.com/Cloudflare/status/1344315074815684608

On the other hand, I’m pretty much engaged with the work that FSLY is doing with Compute@Edge and like any good thing it is going to take a little time to get it fully baked. This is a bet I have with Saul and hopefully 2021 will tell us who wins :)!

Also, whenever I think of e-commerce, I see SHOP bridging the gaps and enabling businesses to sell their product without reliance on Amazon ( and that’s a BIG Deal). They’re bringing down the walls that impediment e-commerce one step at a time!

Cheers!

ronjonb ( @cloudandstocks on twitter)

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