It’s not an odd view at all. The gulf becomes less relevant daily. After ~36 months, significantly so.
You are old, so higher for longer fuel prices are your only consideration.
Impairment to economies and general power price inflation are your new normal for the next ~36 months.
After that, significant projects will have come on line. (project lifecycle on program extensions is generally shorter than 36 months)
As I mentioned already up thread, in that time frame, significant portion of production from the ME will have been replaced by flow improvements in producing fields world wide.
Additionally, the cost incentives for alternatives will be meaningfully improved since fuel prices will have been higher for longer beyond any strategic medium long range forecast (companies perform this process yearly, accounting for the next 12 months in detail - with firm contracts and hedges, and strategically for project capital and operational considerations out to 48 months).
Stop chewing the cud on what happened. It’s over. You have high fuel prices. For the next 36 months.
Average gas prices next month or next quarter are higher - for longer.
If you own oil production, celebrate those investments. If you own reserves, celebrate those investments. If your investment portfolio will suffer from high fuel prices, improve your own fleet efficiency.
For my company, we are looking at efficiency improvements in our journey to 2030. This is a timely theme that WE are investing in. (we don’t care why prices are higher, we simply react to them.)
