Best analysis yet

This is the best in depth analysis of the Ukraine affair I have yet heard. It should not come as a surprise considering that Mark Galeotti actually knows what he is talking about and The Telegraph interviewer does a great job leading the conversation. [By contrast American media is pre-kindergarten / barroom scuffle reporting]

Mark Galeotti

Mark Galeotti (born October 1965) is a London-based lecturer and writer on transnational crime and Russian security affairs and director of the consultancy Mayak Intelligence. He is an Honorary Professor at the UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies[1], a Senior Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute,[2] and an Associate Fellow in Euro-Atlantic Geopolitics at the Council on Geostrategy[3].

Formerly, he was a Senior Researcher at the Institute of International Relations Prague[4] and head of its Centre for European Security.[5] He remains a Senior Non-Resident Fellow with the IIR. Before moving to Prague, he was Clinical Professor of Global Affairs at the Center for Global Affairs at New York University.[6][7] Before moving to NYU, he was head of the history department at Keele University,[8] visiting professor of public security at the School of Criminal Justice at Rutgers–Newark (2005-6) and senior research fellow at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (1996–97). He has also been a visiting professor at MGIMO (Moscow) and Charles University (Prague). For the academic year 2018-19 he was a Jean Monnet Fellow at the European University Institute.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Galeotti

‘Ukraine’s guerrilla warfare could topple Putin’ - Mark Galeotti on Russia’s invasion
Feb 25, 2022

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 the West had an historic opportunity to form a close and friendly relationship with Russia. As Russian tanks roll into Ukraine, the question becomes: what went wrong? To discuss the history behind the current invasion Steven Edginton is joined by the Russia expert Mark Galeotti in the latest Off Script podcast. Watch the full episode above or listen on your podcast app by searching “Off Script”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMThsehOqQ4

The Captain

PS: Galeotti remarked that Putin’s geo-political vision is rooted in the 19th century. I wonder if my notion of backyard politics is equally outdated…

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XLNT link to knowledgable intelligent discussion. Tbnx.

david fb

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It was a bit long. However, truly worth every minute. A big thank you for posting it.

Darryl

‘Ukraine’s guerrilla warfare could topple Putin’ -

Doesn’t take genius to figure that out. The Soviets bailed out of Afghanistan in 89. The Soviet regime collapsed less than three years later.

In similar timelines: the Galtieri junta fell weeks after the Falklands war. The Greek junta fell weeks after the Cyprus civil war.

Wagging the dog is a high risk endeavor. If it doesn’t go well, the instigators suffer the blowback.

Steve

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Excellent analysis.

The only small point, he assumes Putin was not told of the costs involved. Putin may well have been told of the costs. Putin is skipping caring at all.

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Doesn’t take genius to figure that out.

LMAO…thanks Steve…hiding face in shame…

Garry Kasparov interview also very valuable to comprehend the larger scale political economic strategic situation. Only 15 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYhsloRid_c

david fb

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LMAO…thanks Steve…hiding face in shame…

My snark was aimed at Putin. He should be familiar with what happened to other jumped up pieces of poo that wagged the dog. Afghanistan was the straw that finally broke his beloved Soviet Union. Now, he seems determined to repeat it? Typical CEO sort that surrounds himself with yes-men that validate his delusions.

Steve

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I agree that the Ukraine War might be “Putin’s Greatest Gamble Gone Wrong” as stated in the OP video but disagree that something like a Marshall Plan was ever an option with Russia. The Marshall Plan worked because Germany and Japan unconditionally surrendered. I also disagree that the West somehow created Putin. Russia determined its path when it chose Yeltsin over Gorbachev in 1991. Yeltsin was a weak leader, and this allowed Putin, a strong Soviet strategist, to take power. Mistakes were made in the 1990’s, but they did not make any difference in Putin’s path to dictatorship. Yeltsin gave power to Putin, and one of Putin’s first moves was to shut down independent news in Russia, showing Putin never valued democracy. Putin was created by the Soviet Union.

I agree with the OP video’s conclusion (stated in the last 3 minutes of the video) that "with Russia we have a Putin problem, and with China we have a China problem, and that “with Russia the issue is to contain the damage of Putin while we wait him out”. In 20 years or so, the post-Soviet generation in Russia will determine Russia’s direction.

— links ----
Russia’s offensive appears to slow
Russia’s military tactics have been bizarre, perhaps altered by social media.
https://www.goodmorningamerica.com/news/video/russias-offens…

“Yeltsin, who remained President until the end of 1999, permitted a number of independent media outlets to thrive. When Putin succeeded Yeltsin, that unprecedented press freedom was all but crushed.”
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/11/22/can-russias-pr…

Germany surrenders unconditionally to the Allies at Reims
On May 7, 1945
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/germany-surrende…

The Dangerous Illusion of Japan’s Unconditional Surrender
For decades, U.S. foreign policy has been badly distorted by the way that World War II ended.
“A great victory was won. For a moment, but only a moment, the United States had broken free of history and escaped the fate of other nations that struggled to achieve victory at an acceptable cost to its citizens. That moment has never since returned—nor should we expect it to.”
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/13/vj-day-the-dangerous-il…

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The Dangerous Illusion of Japan’s Unconditional Surrender

America was not the only superpower unable to achieve ‘Unconditional Surrender.’ The USSR suffered the same fate in Afghanistan and Russia is likely to suffer it in Ukraine.

Re Putin putting their nuclear defense on high alert, one commenter said that with the short reaction time available, nuclear defense is permanently on high alert. Just Putin’s desperate posturing but no less dangerous. I’m still hoping that more pragmatic Russians will take over.

The Captain

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The Cold War ended in 1992, but some people in Russia think the Cold War has not ended. Maybe it didn’t end. What is the purpose of NATO other than to contain Russia? NATO’s expansion was adversarial to Russia. An adversarial NATO expansion triggered a Russian response. Cold War embers have ignited.

— links ----
Russia joined the IMF and World Bank in June 1992. Russia joined the WTO in August 2012. Russia was in the G-8 from 1997 until 2014.

The Cold War and America’s Delusion of Victory, August 28, 2017
“Instead of a more limited and achievable American foreign policy, most policy makers from both parties believed that the United States could then, at minimal cost or risk, act on its own imperatives… It is also clear that the West should have dealt with post-Cold War Russia better than it did… The shocks of the 1990s have given way to an uninhibited cynicism among Russians, which not only encompasses a deep distrust of their fellow citizens but also sees conspiracies against themselves everywhere, often contrary to fact and reason.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/opinion/cold-war-american…

Timeline of US-Russia Relations (1983-2021)
February 1991: Warsaw Pact is disbanded.
December 1991: Dissolution of the Soviet Union
February 1992: A joint proclamation is issued, stating that the U.S. and Russia don’t see each other as potential adversaries and are beginning a new era of “friendship and partnership.”
October 1996: Clinton calls for NATO’s enlargement into Warsaw Pact countries.
May 1997: Yeltsin and Clinton sign NATO-Russia cooperation pact, stating that the two sides no longer consider themselves adversaries.
April 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest: Putin personally attends to avert granting of Membership Action Plans (MAP) to Georgia and Ukraine.
https://www.russiamatters.org/facts/timeline-us-russia-relat…

The murder that killed free media in Russia, October 5, 2016
“A decade after the assassination of Anna Politkovskaya, news organisations increasingly avoid topics that could anger the Kremlin”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/05/ten-years-puti…

How The Media Became One Of Putin’S Most Powerful Weapons, April 21, 2015
“From his first days as president, Putin moved quickly to dominate the media landscape in Russia, putting not only state media but privately owned broadcast media under the Kremlin’s influence.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/04/ho…

An adversarial NATO expansion triggered a Russian response.

Would central European powers, who were all too familiar with life ruled by Moscow, have felt the need to join NATO, without a perceived continuing threat from Russia?

Now Putin has managed to get Finland and long-neutral Sweden to reconsider NATO membership.

Steve

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