Big Beautiful Bill. Large tax refunds. Increased corporate earnings.
Will it drive the economy in 2026? Will it trickle down to more people working and higher wages?
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I’m on the edge of my seat; what happened? Did we win?
JimA
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Things were sluggish with GDP growth at 1.6% and unemployment at 4.7%. We may do better in 2026.
DB2
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Hold my beer.
Heck, hold both of my beers.
I got this.
No, the BBB will not drive the 2016 economy.
Happy New Year, 2026!
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Aw, you gotta read more science fiction…
DB2
Whattaya mean?
I read many of your posts.
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Things like parallel universes with different timelines. There are an infinite number of universes. In universe A the timeline goes from X to Y, beginning with the Big Bang and ending with thermodynamic equilibrium. In universe B the timeline goes from X’ to Y’ with the same events (history) but it runs the other way.
Stuff like that.
DB2
Oops. 2016. Must have been one of those foggy moments.
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I think Michael Corleone said it best…
If anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it is that trickle down economics do not trickle down.
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But tax cuts for companies increase earnings and should help all with 401ks. Companies are likely to invest and may well hire more and be more receptive to pay raise requests.
Yes, most stocks are owned by the wealthy but 401k funds are huge. Many others benefit too.
About 6 out of 10 people in the US have a retirement account.
That’s what they’ve been telling the working class for the past 50 years. I think GW put it best -
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Tax cuts do not enable more hiring. More trickle-down misinformation.
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Sure it does. The effect may not be as large as one might desire, but more spending spreads money around. We have enough money to go on vacation in Arizona. Money flows out everyday for lodging, meals, etc. $50 for lunch (plus a $10 tip) helps keeps the eatery open and people employed.
DB2
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That’s why it’s a “trickle,” which is a small drip from the reservoir of abundance.
I’m glad that (some) people are willing to own the word trickle, and not run from it, as we are in the age of authenticity.
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Or it might be so small as to be meaningless, impossible to measure, and a total scam, but so what?
You’d think with all those well funded right wing Think Tanks they would have put out a study or two quantifying the effect so the rest of us could breathe easier. Meanwhile, the separation between wealthy and poor grows ever larger, as it has for the past 40 years while we are in thrall to this “theory’, and the wealthy beneficiaries of it seem loathe to examine it any further than slogans and simple soiundbites.
I wonder why that is.
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I suppose it depends on your perspective. Sure, it works if you’re in the top 10%. For those in the bottom 90%…not so much.
More people spending spreads more money around.
Imagine how much more impactful it would be if more people had enough money to go on vacation in Arizona. They’d also be spending money on lodging and meals.
I’m just a simpleton, but 10 people spending money seems better than 1 person spending money…even if it’s the same amount.
Trickle down economics increases wealth inequality. Widening wealth inequality negatively affects the economy.
Apart from the economic effects of extreme wealth inequality, there’s the moral aberration of it all.
la demonia brought up an interesting point during our dog park walk the other day - “Imagine being so wealthy that you alone could solve world hunger…but you chose not to.” The world currently has several people in that position.
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Agreed, but that was not what eldemonio wrote (quoting Michael Corleone).
Getting back to the OP question, the BBB will drive large tax refunds in 2026 (an estimated extra $1,000) – for lots and lots of people. Definitely an economic stimulus. Corporate earnings are projected to rise over 15%, almost double the average for the last 10 years.
Are we in the middle of the Roaring Twenties? That would be interesting to watch.
DB2
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Just did a search on the Roaring Twenties.
In 2020, influential strategist Ed Yardeni predicted the economy & markets were entering a “Roaring 2020s” decade. So far, he’s proven the naysayers wrong. He explains why the economy should continue to expand and the markets to advance in 2026 and beyond.
[podcast]
DB2
To be fair, eldemonio bastardized a quote from Michael Corleone…
That’s precisely what eldemonio wrote. Trickle down economics has resulted in a small percentage of people hoarding wealth. That leaves less for the rest. Meaning…fewer people vacationing in Arizona.
(As a side note - your explanation of money flowing during your vacation in AZ demonstrates the velocity of money and the multiplier effect, not trickle down economics…but I digress.)
I’m glad we’re in agreement that more people spending money is better than fewer people spending money, ergo - we’re in agreement that trickle down economics sucks.
Best quote from your linked video - “The unfortunate thing about making the allusion to the 1920s is, of course, it ended badly.”
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