When I used the term Benevolence, I was being facetious. There has to be some market or economic driven reason for the sudden increase in wages. You could be correct that turnover is becoming very expensive and this is a way to stabilize it. But, it could also be true that the rate of turnover is increasing because the supply of potential employees is shifting dramatically. So, in that sense, we may both be right.
It will be interesting to see if there is a follow on impact in housing and rental demand. If we see supply increase substantially, particularly at the entry level end of the range, it may provide further validation.
Europe is in a much worse crisis as it has been flooded with migration and lacks the space and frankly ability to ramp up quickly the housing development to address it.
Curious. Europe has fewer migrants from outside its borders than does the US, by percentage of population.
when looking at the **percentage of the population**, the United States has a higher proportion. Immigrants make up roughly 13.5% to 14% of the total U.S. population. In the EU, non-EU born individuals account for about 10% to 11% of the population.
Yes, but it’s the sheer numbers relative to the size of the countries and then the supply of housing to accommodate them. The other problem is also the level of safety net those countries promise to the poor.
If you live in an efficiency and add 1 extra person it probably feels tighter than a 6 bedroom home where twice as many come and stay.
I must just be imagining it.
European immigration has reached record-breaking proportions, with the bloc hosting roughly 64.2 million foreign-born residents
. Driven by ongoing global conflicts, climate change, and economic desperation, countries like Germany, Spain, and Italy are bearing the brunt of these arrivals. [1, 2, 3]
The sheer volume of asylum seekers and migrants has triggered sweeping political shifts and humanitarian challenges across Europe: [1, 2]
OK, I get that, but the population of the EU is 451 million, or 30% larger than the US to start with. Big numbers sound scary, but then context matters.
I agree context matters. First off, migrants aren’t being dispersed evenly across europe. Just as they do in the US, they are settling in outsized numbers in particular geographical areas and mostly urban locations where housing is limited and the ability to build more is difficult.
That reality aside, geographically speaking, Europe is only slightly larger than the US and then as you point a much larger population. In terms of occupancy, it has less vacancy than the US, with a population that is already 30% larger.
Funny coincidence. From today’s Wall Street Journnal:
He Earns $33 an Hour as a Costco Cashier. Now He’s a Millionaire.
Long-tenured workers like cashier Tony Barzar are reliable, experienced and able to speed shoppers through a checkout line. Costco is willing to pay to keep them around.
Long-tenured workers like Barzar are Costco’s secret weapon. They are reliable and experienced, able to speed shoppers through a checkout line and serve as mentors to newer workers, passing down the company’s unique culture, Costco executives say.
Barzar’s pay and benefits reflect his value to the company. He earns $32.90 an hour, and the holdings in his 401(k) have boosted his retirement savings to over $1 million, he said.
…
Costco has long paid more than most U.S. retailers to help keep turnover low, a strategy the company’s founders believed would reduce costs associated with training new hires and lead to better customer service. Turnover after one year of employment at Costco is around 7%, a fraction of industry averages.
Research generally supports the idea that happy employees stay longer and lead to happier customers. In [one 2023 study], consulting firm McKinsey looked at online reviews of over 100 retailers by both customers and employees. Retailers with the top 25% highest employee-satisfaction scores were more than twice as likely to fall in the top 25% of customer-satisfaction scores, the firm said.
Over the past year, about 1 million workers have thrown in the towel. In June alone, 720,000 people left the workforce, the Labor Department estimated. The labor force participation rate, or the percentage of those 16 and older who are working or looking for work, fell to 61.5% in June, marking the lowest reading since March 2021. Excluding the lows seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, it represents the lowest rate in five decades.
This likely has a much larger impact on the compensation needed to attract those that are still participating than the immigration policy.
At the same time “When 2025 and 2026 are looked at separately using within-year consistent survey weights, they show two million and 1.9 million increases, respectively, in the number of natives employed.”
So how would you square that with the decreasing participation rate?
From your link:
The labor force participation of working-age (18 to 64) natives and their unemployment rate remained largely unchanged since the current administration took office in January 2025.2
That’s false.
January of 2025 it was 62.6%
June 2026 it is 61.5%
It has been trending downward for decades so I am not blaming the current administration for that but even if more natives are working, the increase is not enough to offset prior birth rates.
There were 4,000,000 births in 2007 (18 years ago). Only half (your two million number) is not enough.
They have no choice because they aren’t making any babies. And the immigration will likely change the character of some European countries, at least to some extent. But it’s either that or decline over the coming generations like Japan is doing.
The birth rate issue is certainly a problem. The problem remains that the rate of immigration and from where is causing two major issues. First, Europe’s welfare system is no longer able to accommodate the number of new immigrants reliant on it. Non EU immigrants tap the welfare programs at higher % rates. Second, some of these groups coming to Europe do not share the same values that are compatible with Western Civilization.
In the EU, immigrants use some non-cash welfare benefits (like family support or unemployment) at higher rates than natives. However, this gap shrinks or reverses for major benefits (like pensions). Once you adjust for age and family size, immigrants use welfare at similar rates as natives.
Funny. We used the same arguments when disallowing Chinese immigration to the US. Also Irish. Also Italian. Also German. Also Mexican. Weird how that looks to the “incumbent” population every time.
The US had effectively no bans on immigration up until the early 1900’s with the exception of the Chinese ban but it also had little in the way of federal welfare programs. If you could get here and make a life, you could stay. The immigration issues today are quite different for those that want to provide a welfare state. Some of these groups immigrating and in large numbers simply do not share similar views on speech, freedom of religion, and basic rights for women. Some fears of other groups are baseless and backward thinking but others are not.
A Dutch study found that the net cost of most immigrants there is negative. From the University of Amsterdam School of Economics:
Borderless Welfare State: The Consequences of Immigration for Public Finances
van de Beek et al.
From Table 0.2: Average net contribution of immigrants to public finances, by immigration motive and region, including the cost for the second generation
Labor immigration from Japan,
North America & Oceania 625K euro
Asylum immigration from Africa - 625K
Study immigration from EU 75K
Study immigration from Africa - 250K
“If immigration remains at the 2015-2019 level in terms of size and cost-benefit structure, the annual budget burden will gradually increase from 17 billion euros in 2016 to about 50 billion euros per year in the long run, a threefold increase that the welfare state most likely wouldn’t survive.”
In the U.S. in the 1850s there was concern about immigrants. This was known as “nativism.” The Knownothings. Anti-Irish. Anti-Catholic. This is not new.
And notice that Europe is largely tribal. It was tribes long before there were national boundaries. They take much pride in their native cultures and object to those who fail to adapt. Changing cultures get some resistance.
Well, they aren’t really able to attract many from North America or the prosperous parts of Asia … because people are doing well where they are, so why move to a somewhat economically depressed place? So that leaves the middle east and Africa to draw upon to grow population.
They (Europe) are gambling that if not the first generation, the second generation will integrate and begin contributing to the economy.
This is the biggest problem of all. They apparently aren’t doing a good job vetting the arrivals, and among the “good folks” they are also getting a bunch of “bad folks”.
There are biases held that are not appropriate to act on. There is also what is called suicidal empathy. It is where our concern about open mindedness and welcoming of diversity means one turns a blind eye to what are ideas and groups that may be harmful. 80% of Egyptian Muslims in a survey believed stoning was an acceptable punishment for adultery. A similar amount thought death was acceptable for a follower that wants to denounce Islam. 70% believed sharia rather than secular law should be the controlling legal grounds.
Unless they are actually stoning people, then yes. We should not be the “idea police.”
Irish immigrants used to believe in wandering spirits. That belief evolved into the Jack-o-lantern.
German immigrants believed in magical gardens. That belief became the garden gnome.
Scandinavians brought with them the belief in trolls - which is now the modern day folklore of trolls living under bridges or honking your horn when going through a tunnel.
Thankfully, we did not employ the idea police against them when they came here.
Hawkwin
Who will remind readers that our own Puritans were also violent racists who murdered witches and indigenous Americans. That belief was 100%.