BIG tech drop. Why today?

NVDA down 8%. ARM -14%. SMCI -20%. Etc. Big drops today. But why? What opened these flood gates? It’s really puzzling me.

ASML and TSMC are making people a bit nervous. Ditto Israel. But this much? Or is it just a matter of the markets have been “on edge” and this just pushed us just over the top?

3 Likes

Shorts or margin calls? Eventually?

The big ticket items are marginally not selling.

IMHO the US economy is scared by the stupid Israeli attack on Iran, the stupid Israeli genocide in Gaza, and the stupid Israeli rejection of US, EU and UN demands on providing water, food, medicine and fuel to Gaza. Netanyahu, IDF and Israeli right wingnut government are upsetting the whole world with no policy other than war. Iran would have inflicted terrible damage on Israel if US, UK, EU countries and Jordan had not saved Israel.

2 Likes

BJ it has been on a down trend for a while now. The markets didn’t look like it but individuals in the market have. Look at SMCI. Before this happened it was already down 20 percent and now it is down over 40 percent.

Andy

1 Like

Nobody cares what happens to Iran except for some zealots on the internet. This is what you get when you attack a government that was elected by a free people. Iran and Gaza is what you get when you have some religious zealots install a government. Decide for yourself which type of government you wish to reside under. But I think it is obvious to everyone.

Andy

7 Likes

For a few months now I’ve wondered if AI was going to take its big hit. Like a sock puppets moment. This might be it, or I’m reading too much into this.

I am more worried about SMCI than I am about NVDA but I think they both will get hammered when their business slows down. SMCI is tricky because of their competition and basically it doesn’t have a moat unless you want to call the low margin provider a moat. But NVDA should be good for at least another year because it runs in 2 year cycles. Although Blackwell just came out I have a feeling that everyone is pushing hard to compete with them. But essentially, for now, NVDA owns the market and then all the others are just providing chips that NVDA can’t produce.

But if you look at the markets, on a weekly chart, they are just barely below the 10 day SMA. They have been sitting on the 10 day for a few days now.

Andy

1 Like

They are a major piece of tech. But it might as well be a smaller Dell. Just putting a box together plus whatever is not a great business model. For Dell it was but Dell is entering this new space.

1 Like

More sellers than buyers. A lot more apparently.

But that’s the flippant answer. Let’s do better.

Have you looked at their financials lately? Anything interesting there? Could it be that the returns to investors based on their financial results isn’t there - at least compared to alternatives? And those alternatives could be anything from Treasury bonds to soybeans to different common stocks.

In the very short term - from minutes to months - prices are basically driven by emotion. But over the longer term - over years - stock prices are driven by the financial results.

Trying to explain emotions in the stock market is a fool’s errand. At any given moment, there can be multiple competing explanations. You can’t reliably guess at them. Sometimes you can figure out the major emotions driving some increase or decrease. Sometimes you can’t. But eventually, the financial results will win out over emotions. If the financials are there, the stock will do OK. If they’re not there, you’re going to drift on the winds of the daily emotions, eventually going nowhere at best or down at worst.

So, back to the question. What do the financials of these businesses look like? Do their financial results support the current stock price?

–Peter

2 Likes

Large institutions are moving $300- $400 B from stocks to bonds.

intercst

3 Likes

It’s also options expiry day. Weird things happen on those days sometimes.

7 Likes

Dell has already been in there but SMCI has been taking market share. SMCI can’t keep up and is building more plants to build more.

Andy

1 Like

Israeli government is not any better than Iran or Gaza. Look at how Netanyahu spits in the face of the US government. Netanyahu and his cohorts are a disgraceful.

1 Like

Jaagu, has there been any Israeli government that you thought was ok? I guess what I can’t understand is you condoning the attack on Israel.

Andy

1 Like

The Israel Labor Party was the best. The party was lead by Golda Meir, Yitzhak Rabin, Shimon Peres, and Ehud Barak.

I do not condone Hamas attack on Israel, but I do not condone the Israeli massacre of Gaza civilians. IDF has bombed Gaza without regard for any humanitarian rights. Netanyahu has been disrespectful to US government while taking all the weapons that he needs to kill Gaza civilians, bomb Iranian consulate in Syria, and US arms to settlers & IDF to kill and steal the West Bank lands & homes of Palestinians.

What I do not understand is your condoning the above crimes by Israel.

3 Likes

Ahh this has nothing to do with Syria, because you were already on the Palestinians side the first moment that Israel went into Gaza. Go back and look at your posts. Not one word of outrage on how Hamas attacked Israel. This, in in fact, the first time you have said you don’t condone the attack on Israel. In fact it wasn’t an attack. It was a massacre where civilians were taken hostage and moved to Gaza.

The Palestinian people are responsible for the massacre in Israel. Hamas is Palestine and Palestine is Hamas. You don’t get to attack someone and then run across a border, with prisoners. If they gave back the hostages I might feel different, but until that time I say let Israel keep looking for them. It’s very simple, give back the hostages.

Andy

4 Likes

That is mostly false. The IDF has had buildings cleared most of the time and then taken them down with bombs. The unspoken idea is to clear the Gaza Strip of any homes to return to after this war is over. If those buildings had been full of people I would agree with you. This is ethnic cleansing. The problem is Hamas won’t settle this any other way. Hamas with half its forces dead still is fighting. As long as there is fighting both sides have to fight.

If Gaza is an open-air prison having a reason to leave such as no home it would be better people moved away. There will be no peace otherwise.

1 Like

Here we go again! Do we have to contaminate every thread with Israel and Gaza?

13 Likes

There are four other wars in the same region that no one pays any attention towards. I suggest people care more about those wars than Gaza.

But with child-like minds, no one can figure out what to care about without the press spoon-feeding them.

@tamhas I would suggest bigots in America get fired. And someone else must be to blame. Memories never fade they just go crazy.

I wish misogynists would get fired quickly as well.

1 Like

Don’t you think the Israeli attack on Iranian consulate in Syria and the Iranian attack on Israel had a lot to do with the stock markets worries about a bigger war?

1 Like