10 days until Black Friday; if those sales tank methinks we are in a recession-declared or not.
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Housing’s combined contribution to GDP generally averages 15-18%, and occurs in two basic ways:
- Residential investment (averaging roughly 3-5% of GDP), which includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes, and brokers’ fees.
- Consumption spending on housing services (averaging roughly 12-13% of GDP), which includes gross rents and utilities paid by renters, as well as owners’ imputed rents and utility payments.
Business Insider
The 7 parts of the US economy that are already in a recession
When describing the health of the US economy, there is a temptation among economists, market analysts, and politicians to argue that the only true picture of our current situation is a sweeping portrait — only by looking at the broadest of aggregate statistics can you determine the state of play, they argue. But the wide view can ignore important developments unfolding under the surface.
Right now, the economy seems OK on the surface. GDP growth has been running north of 3% for the last two quarters. In the labor market, the boilerplate appears to be that conditions are gradually cooling, but nothing more, nothing less
Major employers in industries like homebuilding and restaurants are looking shaky, and they offer ominous signs about the direction of the overall economy.
In a genuine downturn, the consensus typically assumes a gradual, linear increase in unemployment, similar to the slow, steady grind we are currently experiencing. In reality, however, the risk is nonlinear. When things truly turn south, it usually comes as an abrupt shift that results in a negative self-reinforcing feedback loop.
there are industries with a smaller employment footprint that also appear to be softening:
- Freight: There are not as many goods moving around the country. Ship counts from Asia to the US are down roughly 30% from last year. Railcar loadings are down roughly 6% against last year. The trucking industry also continues to see shrinking capacity.
Mining: Crude oil prices are somewhat below the level needed to profitably invest in new drilling wells, so energy companies are unlikely to hire new staff in this area.
Higher education: Declining enrollment, budget cuts, and reduced federal research funding are taxing the higher education sector. Not surprisingly, more colleges and universities are turning to staffing cuts.
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