BRK vs S&P - Aug 2023

Dollar cost average. Sleep well. Get rich slowly. Ignore the proponents of doom and gloom.

My view is TSLA is going to put S&P on its back and carry it up in the next decade.
I am not sure what WEB saw in OXY and ploughing money into oil and specifically this company.

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I cann’t speak for OXY, but Oil has structural supply issues, demand is going to drive the price, we are looking at $100 oil for at least couple of years.

Given most US Oil companies have found discipline, they could be printing money.

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Demand from where ? Ev and Solar adoption is accelerating throughout the world.

US per capita Oil consumption is 920 gallons and China is 140 and India is 51. Now, China and India will consume more Oil as they grow, get richer. That alone can easily replace if entire US oil consumption vanishes.

Of course we are not expecting India to grow and consume like that, but… the demand is there, but not supply.

Here is the OXY share price in 10 years. Has the demand and supply ratio of oil changed ?
There is continued global innovation in battery, solar and wind combined with trillions in subsidies.

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And your point is? You are questioning the greatest investor, the guy who made over $100 B profit on a single stock. I was in Cubertino in line to buy first iPod, I was so impressed, I went out bought 1000 shares, after couple of years of not going anywhere, around 2003 I sold it for breakeven. If I want to brag I can say I was so early to recognize Apple but the truth I have not made money, but WEB did. So you may think EV, battery, wind, solar has potential but we don’t know when is the inflection point. So…

If my view is not aligned with him, I will stay out, but will be careful to dismiss him.

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Below is MSFT Chart. Of course OXY is not Softie… But if you see between 2000 and 2016, the stock went nowhere and then…

Again I am not saying it is going to happen to OXY, but… never dismiss it…


US demand

EU Demand

OPEC production

I have some XOM, CVX, I will be adding OHI, XOP, XLE; I am not going with small or individual names as I don’t have to bother with analyzing and finding an edge, just go with the indices…

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No sure why you are pointing to Microsoft chart. These are very rare companies. I can guarantee that OXY is no Microsoft or Apple. In your own charts, Oil demand in last decade spiked but Oxy shares declined.

There is a view that Oxy is investing in carbon capture (govt subsidies) and that will payoff over next decade. There is some merit to this argument, but there are many players here and this is not their core competence.

I don’t think WEB ever discussed the investment thesis for his companies. I am pretty sure carbon capture is not the reason he invested in OXY. My point is not about OXY, but about Oil in general. Your point that EV, batteries are going to replace Oil is so far just a theory and haven’t seen it showing up anywhere in demand…

Conflating “Oil demand” with Oxy is a mistake. In last 10 years, oil demand went up but Oxy price went down. What is changing this time ? How is Oxy better than BP or CVX or XOM or are they collectively dying slowly ?

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FSD is the key…and they just dropped the price by $3k in the US. What’s going on there?

I see that I can now buy a discounted Model Y from inventory: $45,350 this morning, about $2.5k off. Other locations in the US are getting around $5k off the base model.

We will be in the market for a new EV late this year. Considering the Y, Mach E and ID.4.
The 2024 VW ID.4 is supposed to be much improved. Better infotainment. More power.

There will likely be a frenzy of buying through Dec 31st for some of these models. That’s because the additional rules pertaining to the EV tax credit take effect on 1-Jan-24 which is quite likely to drop the tax credit in half for certain models (depending on the source of the minerals in their batteries).

I do think, however, that there is a possibility that the regulations may be delayed. But only if it helps “favored” automakers (essentially the big 3 that partially use union labor).

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At the end of the day, TSLA is a car manufacturer, requiring lots of capital with heavy competition with nosebleed valuation. Saying TSLA is going to carry SP500 on its back is laughable. TSLA is no Apple. I am not dismissing TSLA but saying it is going to carry the market is … Good luck.


Didn’t people use the same logic before “Amazon is just a book store”. You took the other side of that bet.

TSLA is best AI company in the world.
It’s super charging network is becoming the new XOM as car companies are lining up.
Its Energy division is growing at breakneck speed unable to keep up with demand.
Its humanoid robot is going to be huge and get escape velocity fueled by AI and manufacturing.
Robotaxis are coming.

No auto-manufacturer has a market cap of $700B+.


<< Didn’t people use the same logic before “Amazon is just a book store”. You took the other side of that bet. >>

Yes, I did. The difference, Amazon is able to plow all the cash they generated into other “bets”. That’s where I am wondering whether TSLA can do the same? As a car manufacturer, they need lots of capital to continue to grow. Where are they going to find capital for all other bets?

Each of the idea you listed are $1 T market opportunities and has heavy competition. I don’t see how TSLA has any advantage in any of the areas. Future will tell. Good luck.

They are FCF positive (Operating cash flow of $3.1B
Free cash flow of $1.0B) . $23B cash hoard (generating $1B+ in free income).
More free cash gushing in due to carbon credits which will accelerate. Cybertruck and FSD licensing on the horizon.

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This isn’t a particularly good analogy. XOM digs the energy stuff out of the ground, refines it, and distributes it. Tesla (superchargers), for now at least, just distributes the energy stuff that is made by someone else.

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The analogy is that a super charging station is like a gas station. All car companies are lining up to use them. As overall EV sales increase, Tesla makes more and more money.

However, unlike gas stations, superchargers have very little competition. Other EV chargers are often broken or low performing. On the other hand, Tesla is innovating and improving charging speed.

45000+ super chargers globally. Supercharger | Tesla
They are installing 1 supercharger a day.

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Gas is fungible, and electricity is even more so. Charging technology is not an insurmountable moat, a fleeting edge.