Y-Charts has P/B at 1.175 right now. It was 1.178 a few minutes ago. Anyone know the source(s) of their data?
Y-Charts has P/B at 1.175 right now. It was 1.178 a few minutes ago. Anyone know the source(s) of their data?
Sounds right to me.
With price at 270.42 a moment ago, I got P/B 1.174
So, I presume they’re using the current price and some database given them the most recent quarter’s book value.
Side note:
Since buybacks are a material thing these days, it’s important to use the end-of-quarter share count, not the most recently available one.
That’s because, as the share count dropped since the quarterly statements, cash went out the door as well, reducing total shareholders’ equity.
You can count neither or both of those things, but not just one.
Jim
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Buffett in 2018:
"Berkshire Hathaway owns many stocks that repurchase shares and pay dividends, including what is now its biggest holding, Apple,.
Buffett has long benefited from owning stocks that reward shareholders through both methods. In an interview with CNBC this week, when asked whether investors should be worried about the stock market at a record level, he said that buybacks make owning the iPhone maker a no-lose situation right now.
“I’d rather have it go down for one thing, if it goes down Apple is going to buy a lot of stock back, already buying stock back,” he said. “If it goes down 10 percent it means they get to buy 10 percent more shares and my interest will go up 10 percent more for spending that money.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/31/warren-buffett-explains-the-…
More peace of mind knowing the companies in my portfolio are all flush with cash and are repurchasing shares, hopefully at well below IV.
While my paper losses are significant YTD, my ownership in the businesses is likely increasing daily.
That info and $7.25 will buy you a cup of black coffee.
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$7.25 will buy you a cup of black coffee
Wow, inflation is worse than I thought…
Jim
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Wabuffo, infrequent poster here, has put this out yesterday on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/wabuffo/status/1537181053554917377
Nice summary.
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<Y-Charts has P/B at 1.175 right now. It was 1.178 a few minutes ago. Anyone know the source(s) of their data?>
If BRK’s stock portfolio has lost $65b since the end of last quarter as reported in Barron, the mark-to-market book value should drop at least 10% and P/B would be higher than 1.2 at today’s price.
Good work, Blackswanny.
It’s just an approximation but a pretty good one I would guess.
Working backwards from the 15.6% economic interest I get 2,823 fewer A shares at 6/14 than 4/20.
Working backwards from the 30.9% voting interest I get 2,623 fewer A shares at 6/14 than 4/20.
Since the ownership interest are rounded to the nearest .1% exactitude is not attainable but it gives us a very good idea of what buybacks have been done.
<Y-Charts has P/B at 1.175 right now. It was 1.178 a few minutes ago. Anyone know the source(s) of their data?>
If BRK’s stock portfolio has lost $65b since the end of last quarter as reported in Barron, the mark-
to-market book value should drop at least 10% and P/B would be higher than 1.2 at today’s price.
A transient drop in book per share isn’t very meaningful…it won’t last.
There is no doubt that a share of Berkshire is actually worth more, not less, than it was at March 31.
And the all-time-high book per share is not only a more sound measure of value for that reason, but in practice it is also a better predictor of forward returns.
So I would recommend sticking with the Q1 figure, rather than trying to follow the market down then back up again.
The bonus is, you don’t even have to try to recalculate book value!
One possible exception:
Even at Q1 I didn’t use book as stated, I knocked it down for my estimate of transient overvaluation of Apple and Coke.
There is some eyeball estimation involved in picking a number, but my Q1 haircut was $50.8bn (about $34500 per share).
Just under 80% of that was for Apple. I track them as a multiple of earnings as I do for the railroad rather than using market value.
Jim
4 Likes
<A transient drop in book per share isn’t very meaningful…it won’t last.
There is no doubt that a share of Berkshire is actually worth more, not less, than it was at March 31.>
I understand that. But if we are using P/B value, we should be accurate.
I have also been steadily nibbling BRK at P/BV of 1.35 and less for weeks… At what level do you add in a very large way? 1.1?
I bought some calls (your “nibbling”) at 1.2 and will do so in a large way in the unlikely case of <1x BV, otherwise I will use that money for finally entering Google <=1900-2000. As both is very demanding I’ll probably find in hindsight will find that I was too cheap.
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I bought some calls (your “nibbling”) at 1.2 and will do so in a large way in the unlikely case of <1x BV said2
According to Y-Charts, in the last 5 years, Brk has only been this cheaper three times:
March 23,2020 0.916
June 30,2020 1.087
Oct 27,2020 1.169
What about 2008-2009?
What about 2008-2009? DetroitBadBoy
Don’t know. I’m not a current subscriber to Y-Charts. “Free” data only goes back 5 years.
I bought some calls (your “nibbling”) at 1.2 and will do so in a large way in the unlikely case of <1x BV
I am a lier. Having just seen a price of practically exactly 400,000 I couldn’t resist and “nibbled” again. I am too weak to be a good investor, giving too easily in to temptations.
If this source is correct, Brk.b never went under 1.5x during 2008-2010:
https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/BRK-A/value/price-to-bo…
Hard to believe
If this source is correct, Brk.b never went under 1.5x during 2008-2010:
Did you mean 1.15?
At the price at the moment of $268.60 per B, P/B is 1.166.
Using ratio of price to peak-to-date book, it has been cheaper than that 10.1% of days since the start of 2008 and 5.6% of days since 1996.
But those days are very clustered.
Other than the stretch during the 2020 pandemic bear, it hasn’t been this cheap by P/B since the 1.2 buyback threshold was first announced in 2012.
One possible interpretation:
In effect, it was a stretch of cheapness like today that made Mr Buffett say “enough is enough, let’s do buybacks”.
Jim
6 Likes
Brk dropped to a low of 0.92 x book in the last 5 years (March 2020), that would represent c210 per b on current metrics.
My view is that a low will fall somewhere between 210 and 250 (0.9 and 1.1 x book), at some point.
That’s what the tea leaves say…currently working on the entrails.
When you’re working off a 9% per annum growth rate over 10 years from a price of 280 (1.2 x book, which would be 662 dollars per share in 10 years… the odd 20 dollars here or there in buy price doesn’t seem to matter that much.
Trust the process.
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https://static.fmgsuite.com/media/documents/8b3d617a-4dc3-4d…
Again, read starting on PP 75 of SA Bloomstran letter
From $300/B share and some awful assumptions, still get decent result. From these prices great results.
Did you mean 1.15? Jim
Nah, I clicked on the chart and it reads 1.51. I just checked their data table and it looks pretty wonky, missing dates and all!