BWLD Q4: valuation

I have owned BWLD for many years with purchased between 2006 and 2008 at prices between $21 and $26. I have about a 7% position. BWLD just reported earnings last night. They don’t report adjusted EPS so I went through the last 3 years and added back stock based compensation. I assumed a 30% tax rate so I took the stock based compensation for each quarter, multiplied by 0.7, and divided by the number of diluted shares for that quarter. I made no other adjustments to GAAP EPS. Below are the results with TTM adjusted EPS.


Quarter  	EPS	Adj EPS TTM Adj EPS
12/31/2011	0.73	0.83	
3/31/2012	0.98	1.03	
6/30/2012	0.62	0.72	
9/30/2012	0.57	0.66	3.24
12/31/2012	0.89	0.96	3.36
3/31/2013	0.87	0.90	3.24
6/30/2013	0.88	1.00	3.52
9/30/2013	0.95	1.07	3.93
12/31/2013	1.10	1.26	4.23
3/31/2014	1.49	1.62	4.95
6/30/2014	1.25	1.36	5.31
9/30/2014	1.14	1.27	5.51
12/31/2014	1.07	1.22	5.48

The price is now at $193 so the P/E is about 35. This is not cheap but I don’t think it’s outrageously expensive either (similarly valued to CELG on a P/E basis with similar growth). BWLD is superb management and it has been consistently growing earnings 20%+. Management said that Q1 2015 is looking great with same store sales clocking in at 11% so far. I think cheap oil will help BWLD this year as more people will have more cash to spend on eating out. They have about 1100 stores and management believes they can get to 3000; thus, the growth is less than halfway through.

Chris

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Good analysis Chris. BWLD is not cheap and not expensive either. I have a full position already and will sell some if it hits a P/E of 40 or so. However, I will open a trading position if the P/E goes back to 30 or below.

Johnny