By Mid 2024 all of this will look very different

Assumptions of a recession and ongoing inflation will dry up quickly in 2024. The US industrial policies will be taking hold based on some of the dynamics stated below. I am unsure how high the FED will raise the FF. So I am unsure what is optimal for interest rates. Thinking higher rates enforce more prudent lending practices. If the FED lowers rates it might not be by much. It might not be to spur the US economy.

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“As an engine of economic growth, American manufacturers contribute more than $2.35 trillion to the U.S. economy — every dollar spent in manufacturing results in an additional $2.79 added to the economy, making it the highest multiplier effect of any sector,” said LaPlante.

Manufacturing Economic Benefits

  • In the U.S. today, manufacturing represents just 11% of U.S. gross domestic product, yet it accounts for 35% of American productivity growth and 60% of our exports
  • U.S. manufacturing is the main engine of innovation in the U.S., responsible for 55% of all patents and 70% of all research and development spending
  • Today, manufacturing employs over 12.5 million people and provides rewarding, living-wage jobs
  • Every manufacturing job spurs 7 to 12 new jobs in other related industries, helping to build and sustain our economy
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