Dear Paul,
Word is the house has moved to stop California but it would take 60 votes in the Senate. Not on.
My guess is that they will still be available and will be imported from Asian refineries. Military bases will probably need to have larger amounts of fuel stockpiled.
DB2
The Valero refinery is also the exclusive supplier of jet fuel to nearby Travis Air Force Base, which it delivers through a direct pipeline.
“If that is stopped, what does that mean to the base?” Young said. “Travis uses an amazing amount of fuel to fly all their planes, much more than can be easily replaced, and certainly not replaced within a year. So I think that this becomes a matter of real concern to the Defense Department and it’s potentially a national security issue.”
DB2
An oil refinery has a 50-year plus working life. No one is going to invest that kind of money in a declining market for gasoline.
Better for Exxon to start investing in its own, bespoke Supercharging network.
intercst
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This is an opportunity for “Plan Steve”; The government offers to take over the refinery, for free, getting Valero off the hook for environmental remediation. Then the government contracts with Chevron/Exxon/Conoco, whoever pays the biggest bribe, to run it.
Steve
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And where does one get aviation fuel (both military and civilian)?
DB2
SAF aviation fuel is under development. Mostly from fats and vegetable oils. But processing is similar to oil refinery. Chemical engineering and capital investment.
There are also ways to make SAF from captured carbon dioxide and green hydrogen.
Price is high. Demand not so strong (unless or until required by govt). Producers are backing away from projects to increase production. But Bill Gates uses it for his private jet.
Certainly nothing practical in the foreseeable future.
DB2
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The solution is to slow down a bit, and truly see and experience while traveling.
High speed rails for most continental travel, super modernized dirigibles for USA West coast to East coast and the like, and dirigibles and grand passenger ships a la the Queen Marys and the Unirted States for oceanic journeys would serve travel just fine.
Most people gain next to no real time by jetliners because they arrive so jet lagged their first days are are are what where huh’d lost.
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SAF probably is the future. Uses well established jet engine technology with green fuel. Battery electric air planes will be propeller driven and slow. Hydrogen fueled jet is possible but also more expensive.
Either pay the price, invest to reduce cost, or accept carbon from jet fuels. What is the alternative?
The House on Thursday voted to bar California from imposing its landmark ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered vehicles by 2035
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/climate/california-gas-cars-waiver-house-vote.html
Encourage conversion of ground based vehicles to EV, and accept that air travel will be carbon based. It doesn’t have to be all one thing or all the other, but still try to bend the curve.
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And accept that those who want to fly should be willing to pay for green fuel–even if it is costly. They can take the train or drive their EV if they want.
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Suppose a typical airfare is $200 one way and fuel is 20% of cost. That’s $40. Now suppose use of SAF green fuel doubles that cost.
Now airplane ticket costs $240, 20% more. That is not enough to stop a business traveller. Probably won’t stop a vacation traveller.
Yes airlines will gripe about the higher cost and resist at every opportunity.
Bottom line is this is a bogus issue. They should be willing to buy SAF and pass cost to their customers.
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The administration is also setting a goal of replacing all of today’s kerosene-based jet fuel with cleaner or “sustainable” fuel by 2050. Climate experts say that while the effort is laudable, the administration’s approach is aspirational and unrealistic…
Only 2.4 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel, or SAF, were produced in the United States in 2019, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. In contrast, airlines burned 21.5 billion gallons of regular fuel that year. That means just over 0.01% of the nation’s supply currently comes from sustainable fuel…
Without a government mandate or “very strong incentives,” Rutherford says, “I doubt that much SAF will be generated.” He notes that the International Air Transport Association, a global trade group for airlines, had a voluntary goal of 10% sustainable fuel by 2017 and the federal government had a target of 1 billion gallons per year by 2018, “and neither came anywhere close.”
DB2
An analysis out of USC:
The collective consequence of the pending refinery exits to the Golden State is potentially devastating to California’s economic growth and status as the fourth largest economy, in nominal terms, in the world. With the announced shutdown of Valero’s Benicia refinery complex accompanied by its $1.1 billion charge-off, California is confronting a potential 21% reduction in collective refining capacity from 2023 to April 2026…
Historically, when California needed gasoline to compensate for its in-state production shortages, it turned to Washington State refineries. However, Washington State’s current capacity of 648,000 barrels a day is less than 40% of that of California’s, and it does not appear that it has sufficient surplus capacity to compensate for the expected reductions…
At no time has California ever faced a permanent 20% reduction in gasoline production…Based on current demand and consumption assumptions and estimates, the combined consequences of the 2025 Phillips 66 refinery closure and the April 2026 Valero refinery closure, together with the potential impact of legislative actions… the estimated average consumer price of regular gasoline could potentially increase by as much as 75%
DB2
Re: SAF
The companies with technology are scrapping plans to build for lack of committed buyers. If we want green jet fuels players need to get their act together.
The easy way to reduce jet fuel emissions is to blend bio-diesel into jet fuel. I don’t know the limits but a 50% reduction in emissions might be possible.
People say there is not enough biodiesel to go around but its a start. Farmers will love it. Tall oil fatty acid from papermills becomes more valuable. Rapeseed is the highest oil oil seed. Easy to grow. Short season. Tolerates low temps.
And recall that RFK Jr wants seed oils out of foods. They need new markets.
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Once again there is the cost differential. To increase SAF by orders of magnitude would require a) lots of land and b) lots of subsidies.
Aviation emissions (which make up about 2% of the total) should be last or near last on a list of priorities.
DB2
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Ocean shipping and railroads also make the list. And battery electric trucks may be in our future.
All cost more and will be resisted as long as possible.
Are we serious about global warming. Or will we give it lip service and ignore it as long as we can?
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