Hubbert predicted the USA ‘conventional’ oil would peak in 1973.
No, he didn’t. He predicted that oil would peak by then - he expressly discussed what we now considered to be “unconventional” oil and included it in his analysis. We talked about this back on PoP. I wish TMF’s search function wasn’t completely bollixed, so I could find that discussion.
Even worse, every year Saudi itself consumes more and more of it’s own oil, leaving less for exports. Look at export numbers - Saudi exports 2/3rds of production, uses the 1/3rd to run all the cars/trucks/buses in the country, plus industry plus electricity generation, use in oil fields for production equipment, etc. the population is growing there by leaps and bounds with ‘free’ everything from marriage bonuses to free schools and health care.
I know - that’s the same argument you were making back in 2011, when you predicted that Saudi’s own use was growing so much and so fast that by 2021 they were going to be consuming all of their oil, with none to export. Yet here we are, in 2022, and they’re still exporting the overwhelming majority of their oil - as are most of the countries that the “Export Land Model” predicted would have started completely eating all their own supply.
As to the US, we use ALL our oil production and import another 7-8 million a day, too…not a whole lot these days to share with anyone else.
No, we don’t. We’re actually a net exporter of petroleum products. Again, that’s why I liked to tweak the idea of an “Export Land Model” with the “Import Land Model.” The U.S. went from importing about 13 million bpd back in 2006 to exporting about a million bpd - a swing of about 14 million bpd out into the oil markets, completely dwarfing all effects of the “Export Land Model”:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&…
The reason we still import crude oil is not because we need it to meet our own needs. Partially we’re exporting our refining capacity (we import oil from Mexico and send it right back as gasoline), partially we’re a through-way for Canadian oil (which heads down to the Gulf and is exported as finished product), and partially it’s often easier logistically to import oil by ship to the coastal areas than to move domestic oil to the northeast.
Albaby