Candidate Stocks

I thought now would be a good time to refresh a prior thread highlighting candidate stocks taken from the 1YPEG calc spreadsheet.

The summary of candidate stocks shown below were copied from a pivot table toward the last tab in the spreadsheet located here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1H_v6WOjFi81rM3TH9ZHS…

To become a candidate stock, one must satisfy the following criteria:

YoY EPS Growth > 30%
1YPEG < 1
YoY Rev Growth > 20%

Note, the indicator to bring out a candidate stock has a small tweak in it to bring forward prospective stocks showing huge revenue growth gains (I believe > 50%) but still coming out of negative earnings. It was a tweak I made to bring the XPOs of the world out to bear. You’ll see some stocks in the mix below that don’t have a 1YPEG, YoY EPS or P/E. These are those special situation stocks. But please head these words below…

This is a first pass screen and by no means do I recommend purchasing any of these stocks. They all require due diligence. Someone may have entered a value incorrectly in the spreadsheet, or may have entered GAAP earnings instead of non-GAAP. Please double check everything!

Now that the disclaimer is made, here is the list:


	YoY	TTM		YoY
Ticker	EPS 	P/E	1YPEG	Rev
======	======	======	======	======
AAPL	40%	13	0.34	26%
ABMD	129%	78	0.61	35%
AMBA	114%	47	0.41	51%
AMCX	52%	17	0.33	34%
ANET	90%	48	0.53	55%
ARCP	42%	N/A	N/A	217%
ATRO	60%	17	0.28	68%
BANC	200%	10	0.05	51%
BIIB	61%	22	0.36	32%
BOFI	38%	24	0.63	44%
CBM	73%	26	0.36	27%
CGNX	62%	21	0.34	40%
CMLP	200%	72	0.36	138%
CNC	50%	29	0.57	53%
CRTO	133%	41	0.31	69%
CVG	43%	14	0.33	24%
EA	65%	36	0.55	27%
ELLI	59%	56	0.96	56%
ENPH	65%	N/A	N/A	52%
GILD	111%	12	0.10	67%
GPRO	160%	48	0.30	64%
ILMN	68%	65	0.96	28%
INBK	99%	20	0.21	42%
INFN	142%	41	0.29	28%
INN	200%	107	0.53	27%
KORS	36%	9	0.26	32%
LOGM	67%	54	0.81	27%
MCK	33%	20	0.60	30%
NHTC	139%	14	0.10	98%
NYMT	36%	6	0.17	21%
PAYC	200%	113	0.57	47%
PSIX	45%	29	0.65	45%
REGN	62%	53	0.86	36%
SEDG	200%	102	0.51	177%
SEP	55%	15	0.27	78%
SKX	94%	39	0.41	34%
SNCR	32%	24	0.76	36%
SRC	200%	48	0.24	27%
SWIR	200%	29	0.15	25%
SWKS	76%	18	0.24	51%
SYNA	34%	14	0.40	80%
TSM	49%	11	0.22	31%
TWTR	200%	107	0.54	82%
VEEV	88%	83	0.94	43%
VRX	31%	27	0.88	23%
XCRA	200%	9	0.05	83%
XPO	73%	N/A	N/A	220%
Z	200%	179	0.89	50%
ZLTQ	200%	65	0.32	59%

Best,
–Kevin

P.S. An anonymous contributor added some wonderful graphs on the very last tab of the spreadsheet. The graphs show trends in EPS growth, Rev Growth and 1YPEG growth as well as earnings acceleration and revenue execration. To use it, enter any ticker from the sheet in the green section and press return. Very nice and thank you!

40 Likes

Bleh, lazy typing and lousy spell check. The last bit in the P.S. was meant to say revenue acceleration. I don’t know what revenue execration could possibly mean.

Best again,
–Kevin

2 Likes

I was discussing at lunch with a friend this list, and figured it was about time to update it. Kevin must have ESP!

Many of these matched my watchlist stocks several months ago, and added an additional ‘nudge’ for me to actually buy some of them. Notable buys that I made that matched this list, with their respective purchase price, buy dates, current price, and current and annualized return. Since I own these, consider this ‘marketing’ with all the standard disclaimers, and always do your own due diligence. I just want folks to see the real-world application.


AAPL	$127.87	3/20/2015	$115.68	-9.53%	-23.28% (unhappy, but think this will correct itself)
ABMD	$73.30	7/23/2015	$93.06	26.61%	72156.64%
AMBA	$101.81	6/24/2015	$115.69	13.63%	203.65%
CRTO	$30.50	7/29/2014	$47.94	56.33%	55.02%  (owned before I found this board...was 80% a few days ago)
CRTO	$45.50	6/11/2015	$47.94	4.79%	36.39%  ( ... and when it went on sale I bought 2x more!)
CVG	$25.20	7/23/2015	$24.15	-4.55%	-72.91% (small position, not great earnings, hold for now)
GILD	$100.26	3/23/2015	$118.68	18.37%	57.78%  (bought multiple batches in diff accounts)
GILD	$101.50	1/20/2015	$118.68	16.47%	32.64%
GILD	$97.75	2/5/2015	$118.68	20.59%	45.87%
REGN	$478.29	3/23/2015	$593.09	24.00%	78.90%
SEDG	$27.85	7/9/2015	$30.57	9.21%	228.92%
SKX	$74.75	4/21/2015	$160.02	**113.36%**	1259.16% (my first bagger - Saul and this list get the credit!)
SWKS	$96.24	4/1/2015	$89.10	-7.42%	-20.01% (being dragged by AAPL unnecessarily...
SWKS	$98.85	7/24/2015	$89.12	-9.84%	-25.93%   ...and will eventually correct itself)
XPO	$45.70	3/27/2015	$44.74	-2.10%	-5.74%  (this one has yet to play out, IMO)

I violated my “don’t buy near earnings” rule on CVG and paid the penalty, but I think it will be ok longer-term.

Those are real numbers, folks, and you can see that many of them were bought this calendar year, while the rest of the market languishes in 1-2% territory. I own others, of course. Some are winning, some are losing. With few exceptions, my big winners are all listed above, and have strong correlation to the 1YPEG list.

In other words, it’s worth your time (and money) to pay attention to this list and give the companies due consideration!

4 Likes

Kevin, that was me adding the charts. I like to see things graphed out so I thought I’d share. Your list has been very useful so again I’m trying to contribute what I can.

To anyone using it, note that any major changes in the column structure of the lists could break the charts. It should be an easy fix if it happens, but be aware. If I have time I’ll try to add some safety checks in there to at least alert the user if something’s up.

10 Likes

I was buying more Astronics yesterday (ATRO). See my prior analysis on the Weekly Analysis Board awhile back. Also own Centene (CNC).

sw

2 Likes

I did, too, stillwater9999. The current price was just too tempting. I’ve owned ATRO for three years and it comprises 4% of my portfolio. I am used to the sometimes wild ride as its smaller market cap of 682 million and its membership in the aerospace sector sometimes impact the share price in ways I don’t see coming. But the company is solid and growing. Excellent management. The earnings released the other day were very good, but they guided lower for the rest of the year even though they have a large backlog of orders. Hence, they are down roughly 24% for the month. Because of that drop, the are up only 9% for 1 year, but the 3 year gain is 190%, and the 5 year gain is 470%.

The basic facts:

Astronics Corporation (ATRO) is a leading supplier of products to the global aerospace, defense, consumer electronics and semiconductor industries. Astronics’ products include advanced, high-performance electrical power generation & distribution systems, lighting & safety systems, avionics products, aircraft structures, engineering design and systems certification and automated test systems. Astronics’ strategy is to increase its value by developing technologies and capabilities, either internally or through acquisition, and using those capabilities to provide innovative solutions to its targeted markets and other markets where its technology can be beneficial. Astronics Corporation, through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, has a reputation for high-quality designs, exceptional responsiveness, strong brand recognition and best-in-class manufacturing practices. The Company routinely posts news and other important information on its website at www.astronics.com

Here’s an article that does a good job introducing you to the company.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3317515-astronics-overlooked…

Vivienne

4 Likes

My prior postings on Astronics from a couple of months ago:

http://discussion.fool.com/astronics-notes-and-analysis-part-1-3…

http://discussion.fool.com/astronics-notes-and-analysis-part-2-3…

sw

3 Likes

sw,

Your 2 part analysis, which I read when you posted in May, was excellent. Anyone here interested in ATRO or just in deep dive analysis should read them both.

From Part 2, you wrote:

I think the present stock price around $70 is toward the upper end of fair valuation. I would consider adding shares in the 55-58 range assuming there is no fundamental change in the business case.

With the price today around 52 and change, I’d say that more than qualifies for serious consideration of adding shares.

Thanks for the great analysis.

Vivienne

2 Likes

Thanks for the charts, I appreciate the visual representation of earnings and revenues. It puts important information in a perspective I can easily understand (hockey stick or not).