• The way I heard it explained is that whenever there was a conflict between vision and radar, the system always went with vision.
I don’t know the details, I repeated what Elon Musk said which I take at face value. There is an old saying among navigators, “Don’t go to sea with two clocks.” When they don’t agree you don’t know which one is right. This is what was happening to Tesla. They figured that vision alone would do but a better radar would be even better. Now for my speculation, in fog, in rain, and in the dark vision degrades considerably. Here is where radar helps provided it can return a sufficiently detailed picture. In a sense, the vision clock for when there is light and the radar clock when vision fails.
At Seeking Alpha someone commented that with the addition of radar all the previous data would need to be updated, a red herring if my above hypothesis is correct.
• when will it be an opportune time to invest in $TSLA? I nearly did last week, but I’m now glad I didn’t. Any thoughts?
When you have the money and the guts to do so. ![]()
I confess that I didn’t expect TSLA to fall this low but it is not all that unusual for a growth company. AMZN went from $5.33 on December 10, 1999 to $0.30 on September 28, 2001,* a -94.40% drop. TSLA is down ‘only’ -73.39%, to match AMZN it would have to fall to $28.70 to match AMZN, a further 73.7% drop from here. It’s possible. ![]()
I’ve said it before and I repeat, buy stocks that bounce back. The stock price cannot tell you that, only the business can, that is what we need to look at. There is no telling when and where the bottom will be.
As for the current situation:
• A burst bubble, not just TSLA but the whole growth market
• Tax loss selling time
• Funds window dressing
• Lots of Tesla/Musk haters - some with very deep pockets
• Musk selling to finance Twitter
• Margin calls
• Stop loss orders triggering
On the flip side, Tesla’s ttm P/E is 34.31 (Yahoo), and forward P/E 28.82
The trailing PE ratio is 33.67 and the forward PE ratio is 28.82 . Tesla’s PEG ratio is 1.28.
If you believe Tesla will bounce back then it is a raging buy.
One thing we know, tax loss selling and window dressing end this week.
Some things to consider, inflation, looming recession, China covid mess, Fed speak, IRA kicking in next week,
Expected earnings report January 25. Maybe wait to see how the market reacts
The Captain
For full disclosure, my TSLA cost basis is $115.48 so down only -5.52%
- On or around September 28, 2001 ARM Holdings dropped 60% in a day on an earnings report. The next day I doubled my ARMH position. It also coincided with the bottom of the dot com bust bear market.