Celgene (CELG)

This is primarily in response to UtahChris’ question, but since my response deals primarily with one of his five stocks I started it as a new thread.

Hi Utah Chris – CELG is my third biggest position so I am pretty familiar with it. Chris, if you are serious about investing, it’s insane to get your EPS off the Nasdaq site (or any similar site). It’s your real money you are making decisions about. It’s worth the trouble of getting the earnings from the company’s quarterly reports. You can get the last two years of adjusted earnings in probably 10 minutes or less. They are in the first paragraph of each earnings report and they are all on the company’s investor relations site. You’ll find how to do it under the FAQ/Knowledgebase page #2176, under “evaluating a company”, or under posts 2003 and 2011.

Anyway, CELG is a very reliable grower. Here is what its revenues look like (in billions of dollars)

2012 – 1.25 1.37 1.42 1.42 = 5.5
2013 – 1.46 1.56 1.64 1.76 = 6.5
2014 – 1.73

Their predictions for revenue are (roughly):
2014 – 7.5
2015 – 9.0
2016 – no est
2017 – 13.5

Not many companies are willing to give estimates for 2017.

Here are their earnings. Since they just split I had to divide the earnings they gave by two, so there are some half cents. I’ll round one down and one up alternating.

2012 - 54 61 64 66 = 2.45
2013 - 69 76 78 75 = 2.98
2014 - 84

Their predictions for earnings are (roughly):
2014 – 3.60
2015 – 4.62
2016 – no est
2017 – 7.50

Here’s what their trailing earnings look like:

12 2012 - 2.45
03 2013 - 2.60
06 2013 - 2.75
09 2013 - 2.89
12 2013 - 2.98
03 2014 - 3.13

Chris, you really have to learn how to do this for yourself. It’s not hard to do and really doesn’t take very long, and you need it to make intelligent decisions.

They are a great company. Since they have one big product they have worked hard to diversify, and have lots of new meds coming on line, and they have partnered with many small companies, sponsoring their research with the option to buy the product or distribute the product if it is successful, or buy the little company.

Cash Flow from Operations was $2.2 billion for 2013, up 10% from 2012.

Repurchase of Shares For the full year of 2013, Celgene repurchased approximately 22.3 million shares (roughly 5% of the total outstanding). This was on top of all they invested in their own R&D, and R&D being done by other small companies.

The Company ended the year with $5.7 billion in cash.



For FAQ’s and Knowledgebase
please go to Post #2176


Ok got it Saul. I’ll take another run at it pulling my own numbers from the 10Qs and 10Ks. I must have been doing something wrong as it was taking me a lot longer than 10 minutes. Or maybe I just need practice.

Thanks much for the response! -Chris

Chris, It’s lots easier from the earning report releases than from the 10Q’s and 10K’s. In the earnings report press releases they just start with the information you want. Here, for example is the opening paragraph from their last earnings report. The bolding is mine. This is what makes it so fast to get. And they are all to be found on their Investor Relations site under Press Releases.

SUMMIT, N.J.–(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG) reported net product sales of $1,708 million for the first quarter of 2014, a 19 percent increase from the same period in 2013. First quarter total revenue increased 18 percent to $1,730 million compared to $1,465 million in the first quarter of 2013. Adjusted net income for the first quarter of 2014 increased 19 percent to $705 million compared to $592 million in the first quarter of 2013. For the same period, adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 22 percent to $1.67 from $1.37.

By the way when I read over what I wrote in my first response, I realize that I sounded critical and somewhat pompous and I’d like to apologize.



No apology needed at all - I’m really appreciative of the time you spend with us all.

Thanks for the tip, it looks to be very helpful.


If you get some familiarity with company filings will you find most of the information you want except for guidance

For instance if you want two years worth of quarterly numbers on Celgene from the P&L you can find that at near the end of the 10k on page 102. These aren’t the complete statement but will give you most of what you seem to be looking for. It’s a lot faster than looking up the 10Qs

The only information you should rely on is the company filings. There is no better way to gather data. Secondary sources can’t be trusted. Filings look complex initially but spend some time knowing what goes where by convention and it gets faster with every try



Without disclosing the name of the company first, let me present you the numbers for a company for which I went through the exercise of tabulating all the data. What is your opinion about this company knowing that they got one time large licensing money in Q4 of 2012? In Jan they were around $12.50 and recently they hit a 52 week high of $23.14.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
2012 12.89 15.48 15.04 18.8 62.21
2013 16.50 17.50 18.80 15.4 68.2
2014 16.30 ____ ____ ____ 16.3

Net income
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
1.2 1.6 1.8 9.6 14.2
2.3 4.5 5.9 3.4 16.1
4.3 ___ __ __ 4.3

Trailing 12 months income

Q4’12 14.2
Q1’13 15.3
Q2’13 18.2
Q3’13 22.3
Q4’13 16.1
Q1’14 18.1

Thanks again and I’ll disclose the name in the next post. Just keeping a little bit of suspense.


Hi Fool Chandra,

First of all, since you didn’t give me any data about earnings per share, $23 per share could be 10 times earnings or 100 times earnings. No way to evaluate.

Next, revenue is growing very slowly, perhaps 10% or 12% per year, which is not very impressive.

Their net margins are improving from 10% in 2012 to about 25% in the last quarter, which is good.

Let’s knock off that anomaly of 9.6 net income in the 4th quarter of 2012 and put in 2.0 which would be the normal progression. Then we’d have a more rapid progression of Net Income, in line with the increase in Net Income Margin.

Unless revenue grows at a better rate, they can’t keep growing by just increasing margin.

Need more information.



Thanks Saul. I knew I was going to miss something and hence this exercise. The company is Repligen (RGEN) and I went through all the previous earnings report on Seeking Alpha. Would you please add the earnings data that you find missing here? That will help me go back and check where to get it from next time.


Also, I can see that revenue is growing at 10-12% but how did you calculate the net margins for 2012 (10%) and 2013 (25%)?

That leads me to the next question. Should the revenue growth be of the same order or more than the net margins?

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Also, I can see that revenue is growing at 10-12% but how did you calculate the net margins for 2012 (10%) and 2013 (25%)?


I divided net income by revenue. By definition, that is net margin. (I just did a rough estimate in my head).

That leads me to the next question. Should the revenue growth be of the same order or more than the net margins?

They are not related. There could be 5% revenue growth and 40% net margins, or vice versa. What’s good is that net margins were increasing.