Ant,
Their guidance for next quarter is Revenue $15M to $16M and non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 to $0.18.
When I read they expect profits to double, that was based on last year’s EPS of $0.08 during the fourth quarter and not sequentially.
I originally assumed it was sequentially which was a mistake. So, the 44 cents I estimated for next quarter is a far cry from management’s actual estimate!!!
Sorry for anyone who was mislead by my earlier post.
A.J.
AJ yes it is a yoy not sequential forecast.
Ant
CEVA is supplier to chip companies. So companies like AMBA, SWKS, QCOM are either their customers or play complimentary role to them.
CEVA doesn’t compete with these semiconductor manes we follow on this board.
Agree, they have done admirable job expanding technologies and customer base, partly through acquisitions.
Their business model resemble to ARMH, which is fantastic… However, CEVA operates into a segment that is not as scalable as ARMH, so I would not see it as large and scalable opportunity as ARMH has / had.
Having said that, if the valuation is reasonable, this is a great company to own.
Just noticed 2 of the links are broken in the original post, apologies.
Ceva results…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceva-sees-q4-profit-doubling-1…
Ceva transcript…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/edited-transcript-ceva-earning…
Regards
Ant
Thanks Nilvest. I actually got into them via Parthus - the Irish Bluetooth company back in the TMT boom which CEVA bought out. It has done ok for me but the company is now more interesting than ever. They supply Alphabet/Google and Nest for a start, maybe Fitbit I think if not the Nike fuel band and perhaps even Mobileye. They are in all of the Samsung smart phone range now also. I think their LTE modem business does compete with Qualcomm. If Apple wanted to switch to another LTE supplier and Intel was not yet ready to support LTE then that could be nice!
Some good customers there.
Ant
Interesting site here… captures charting analysis, recommendations and newsflow altogether.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=ceva,$lscc
Ant
Ant, in the last conference call I came across this:
On the royalty front, from royalty reports we received thus far, we expect an increase of up to 25% in royalty revenue on a year-over-year basis, mainly due to growing unit shipments of LTE and connected products. This leads to an annual royalty revenue growth rate of approximately 22%, substantially above the overall cellular and semiconductor industries’ growth rates. This also marks CEVA’s return to annual royalty growth after three successive years of royalty declines.
What the heck was going on in the three years previously, and is the current growth sustainable?
Saul
Management is telling us profits will double next quarter on increasing revenue of 15%… With 44 cents expected next quarter, TTM EPS would be 80 cents with a PE of 33.2.
AJ, you misunderstood! They are not doubling sequentially from 22 to 44 cents. They will double year-over-year from 8 cents to 16 to 18 cents. That’s a major difference in your thinking.
Saul
Saul,
AJ, you misunderstood! They are not doubling sequentially from 22 to 44 cents. They will double year-over-year from 8 cents to 16 to 18 cents
I noticed that shortly after I wrote the post and corrected it a few posts later in the thread. Hope I didn’t confuse anyone too much!
Thanks,
A.J.
Ant:
The 10-K made for interesting reading, a US corporation with Irish, French and Israeli connections. IP, not drugs! 
CEVA’s IP business model is very attractive as evidenced by the success of ARM Holdings. One major difference I see is that ARM entered through underserved markets, first in embedded microprocessors and later in mobile in a classic disruptive technology approach. By the time Intel blinked ARM was firmly established. By contrast, CEVA went head to head in DSP so it’s no wonder they floundered. Now CEVA is expanding into connectivity which I don’t think is underserved and artificial intelligence which might be. They do seem to have a very nice ecosystem of partners.
From a risk aversion point of view wouldn’t it be better to wait to see results instead of betting on the promises. If they succeed, there will be over a decade to invest in them. I intend to follow them, thanks for the heads up.
Denny Schlesinger
What the heck was going on in the three years previously, and is the current growth sustainable?
Hi Saul - basically I think the change has come about with CEVA’s focus on LTE which finally became the dominant modem chip set in mobile as well as moving beyond mobile into other connectivity spaces allied with their acquisition of Rivierawave.
It must have helped when QUALCOMM’s snapdragon got kicked out of Samsumg as that let Ceva in alongside the in house chip.
Cheers
Ant
From a risk aversion point of view wouldn’t it be better to wait to see results instead of betting on the promises. If they succeed, there will be over a decade to invest in them. I intend to follow them, thanks for the heads up.
Hi Denny - thanks, yep you are probably right. I bought in during the TMT boom when PLDs, DSPs and Power ICs etc were supposed to be the next big thing. International Rectifier and Altera both finally got bought out bringing the investments into bagging proportions but not exactly wealth creating returns. Ceva stayed independent and really failed to get traction. If I wasn’t already in it I might wait a few quarters to see how it pans out. I was posting on it partly from the point of view of an early alert but also for those invested in stocks in allied spaces (AMBA, AIOCF, MBLY, SWKS etc).
Cheers
Ant
Hi Saul - basically I think the change has come about with CEVA’s focus on LTE which finally became the dominant modem chip set in mobile as well as moving beyond mobile into other connectivity spaces allied with their acquisition of Rivierawave.
Thanks Ant
Guys
I raised this stock on the board a while back. Well their latest results are out and are a beat on revenues and earnings and the traction continues. I’m still wondering how long they can ride the LTE wave before whatever next replaces it in the 5G roll out or beforehand. In the meantime they are doing well.
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16471630-ceva-inc-announces-first…
Q1 had a 19% increase in revenues with royalties rising 31% (driven by LTE) & licensing growing 10%. GAAP earnings and EPS rose 270% & 350% respectively. Non-GAAP earnings & EPS rose to $3.5m and 17c up 115% and 113%.
Their licensing activity (11 deals secured) were mostly outside of traditional base band across a mix of target markets (6 in DSP/Platforms and 5 in connectivity) and across a balance of geographies and with some new clients thrown in.
Still interesting for those of you watching from the sidelines. The analyst call should provide some guidance which I will follow up on.
I notice that I missed reporting on Q4 results which is found here…
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ceva-inc-announces-fourth-quar…
Q4 grew 16% so the revenue growth appears to be accelerating - EPS growth was identical at 113% from 8c to 17c and 13 deals were signed.
Non-GAAP net income and diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2015 were $3.6 million and $0.17, respectively, representing an increase of 106% and 113% over the $1.7 million and $0.08 reported for the fourth quarter of 2014.
I haven’t done the 1YPEG yet but it should be starting to look interesting.
Cheers
Ant
FYI Rolling quarterly EPS have been:
16 Q1 17
15 Q4 17
15 Q3 22
15 Q2 6
15 Q1 8
14 Q4 8
14 Q3 12
14 Q2 0
14 Q1 16
They are forecasting a YoY ramp up in the second half of 2016 so the Q4/Q1 flat line is expected to bend up.
Ant
…and here’s the Q2 guidance.
In the second quarter Ceva expects revenue of $16.5-$17.5 million, up 24-31 percent from a year ago, with adjusted EPS of 17-19 cents, up from 6 cents a year earlier. Analysts are forecasting revenue of $15.9 million and EPS of 15 cents.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/israels-ceva-q1-more-profit-13…
Ant
In case anyone is interested how the story ended…
CEVA is breaking through $30 to a 52 week high and closing in on its all time high.
Q2 results were a meet and beat with a 28% revenue growth and 250% earnings growth (EPS)…
http://seekingalpha.com/news/3199125-ceva-beats-0_03-revenue…
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16567049-ceva-inc-announces-secon…
Earnings per share progress now looks like this in cents…
16 Q2 21
16 Q1 17
15 Q4 17
15 Q3 22
15 Q2 6
15 Q1 8
14 Q4 8
14 Q3 12
14 Q2 0
14 Q1 16
Ant
To continue the story guys - the progress looks good and consistent, CEVA pre-announced year end numbers this week. The licensing activity and the numbers are very interesting and that leaves me with some research and thinking to do on this in order to disambiguate the intel impact within iPhone and the broader longer term opportunity (http://seekingalpha.com/article/4007619-ceva-story-just-appl…) - I’m hoping the eventual
Here’s the pre-announcement…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ceva-announces-record-reve…
Here are the earnings numbers since I last posted in this thread…
16 Q4 24-26 pre-announced
16 Q3 24 (ahead of the ultra strong Q3 2015 compare)
16 Q2 21
16 Q1 17
15 Q4 17
15 Q3 22
15 Q2 6
15 Q1 8
14 Q4 8
14 Q3 12
14 Q2 0
14 Q1 16
If we look at revenues - these are estimated at above guidance at an all-time high too - $21.2m vs guidance of $18.5-19.5m. Whilst growing slightly with a lot of erratic seesawing in the numbers along the way (top and bottom line), since mid 2015 with the LTE roll out hitting full steam and the RivierraWave acquisition bedding in, Ceva numbers has been demonstrating the very model of growth.
16 Q4 21.20m
16 Q3 17.85m
16 Q2 17.10m
16 Q1 16.50m
15 Q4 16.07m
15 Q3 16.24m
15 Q2 13.40m
15 Q1 13.83m
14 Q4 13.82m
14 Q3 14.09m
14 Q2 9.20m
14 Q1 13.70m
Returning to the article in the link at the beginning of this post, I have been caught in 2 minds whether:
versus…
To make things interesting - Ceva announced a clutch of design wins at CES in January already… with Altek, DeepGlint and On Semi:-
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/altek-license-ceva-imaging…
Clearly not everyone at Ceva were partying it up in Vegas as in the meantime they were signing deals in Shenzhen for IoT audio:-
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shenzhen-micro-nano-instit…
and back in Q4 they were pushing the boundaries of their bluetooth technology release program and vision intelligence developments and announcing further licensing deals:-
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ceva-leads-bluetooth-5-ip-…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/himax-emza-ceva-partner-cr…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/srt-group-license-ceva-sig…
So just when I thought I might take the money off the table having reached the summit - there maybe further mountains to climb.
Ant
I’m hoping the eventual
err - should have read…
I’m hoping the eventual earnings call transcript and analyst Q&A might shed light on that.
Ant
Err am I imagining it or has the Fool completely done away with board search functionality? Ok with help from Google and none from TMF’s pitiful remaining search function and to continue this thread…
The results are out:-
http://seekingalpha.com/pr/16729287-ceva-inc-announces-fourt…
The forward guidance beat expectations and the shares tanked.
No transcript yet but with Qualcomm in the litigation dog house it offers Intel and CEVA a ray of hope for continued Apple business along with their uber strong IoT success.
Ant