ChatGPT offers surprisingly good retirement advice

Don’t forget that average retirement investor using market timing and individual stock selection, etc. is under performing the S&P 500 index by 5%-6% annually. You may as well set fire to your 401k contribution.

{{ Long-Term Annual Gap (20-30 Years):

  • According to Dalbar’s 2025 QAIB report, the average equity investor underperformed by approximately 2.14% annually over a 30-year period.
  • Other data suggests a wider chasm, with the S&P 500 returning roughly 7.1% to 10% annually over 20 years, while the average investor earned only 2.1% to 2.6%. }}

free link:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/business/retirement-planning-ai-chatbots.html?unlocked_article_code=1.K1A.z1nG.SF-xMgasWsJq&smid=url-share

intercst

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Most people never win this game.

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What does winning mean in this context?

  1. Making some money?
  2. Making enough money to cover expenses?
  3. Making a fortune?
  4. Beating the averages?

The Pareto Distribution••• sees to it that most investors underperform the market:

Index funds, the ultimate diversification strategy, guarantees matching the market, but not all indexes are the same. Over 30 years, Average CAGR:

DJIA 6.4%
S&P 500: 6.5%
NASDAQ composite: 9.7%

It would seem that the NASDAQ index is a fair way to invest in growth.

The Captain

••• I realize I’m putting the Pareto cart before the Pareto horse. There is something in the Universe’s statistical machinery that forces this outcome. Stuart Kauffman, my favorite Complexity Scientist, in At Home in the Universe called it “Order for Free.”

Google AI

In At Home in the Universe: The Search for the Laws of Self-Organization and Complexity (1995), Stuart Kauffman introduces “Order for Free” as a central tenet of complexity science, arguing that the spontaneous order observed in nature is not merely a product of natural selection, but an inherent, “free” property of complex systems.

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Order for free is equally stated a framework that is natural (or perhaps, a framework which exists, but may not be understood from some referential points of view).

Great post, thanks.

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Terrific book.

The focus of my college education and my first years of employment was mathematical analyses of complexity, and being a fervent environmentalist I became entranced with how complexity begets evolution begets new orders of being.

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Let’s make it easy for Fools to get it…

The Captain

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Don’t use Yahoo for such calculations. Yahoo does not include dividends.

S&P 500 CAGR over the last 30 years is 9.42% through the end of 2025.

Nasdaq is about 10.9%.

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That’s correct.

But you can “Beat the House” by investing in a low-fee index fund and outperform 95% of professional money managers and 98% of the amateurs.

It’s the ultimate free lunch in finance.

intercst

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I didn’t use Yahoo but I don’t know the source used by my source.

Yahoo price history shows both the closing price and the adjusted closing price which factors in dividends.

The Captain

Fidelity has 4 zero index funds;

  • Fidelity ZERO Total Market Index Fund (FZROX): Covers the entire U.S. stock market (approx. 3,000 companies).

  • Fidelity ZERO Large Cap Index Fund (FNILX): Tracks a 500-stock portfolio of large U.S. companies, similar to the S&P 500.

  • Fidelity ZERO Extended Market Index Fund (FZIPX): Focuses on U.S. small and mid-cap stocks.

  • Fidelity ZERO International Index Fund (FZILX): Covers non-U.S. stocks

Where appropriate for my portfolio, that’s where I keep my investments. I’m sure they’re making money on these funds, but I can’t figure out how.

Keeping my fingers crossed hoping they lower the fees even more. :grin:

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Actually, it doesn’t. The index DOES NOT include dividends. I would expect a savvy investor such as yourself to know this.

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/additional-material/faq-sp-500-dividend-points-index.pdf

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Do you know if there is still the issue of selling the fund and moving to another broker? There used to be a portability problem that if you sold a ZERO, but did not invest in another Fidelity fund, you absorbed the tax hit.

Pete

What you expect I should know and what I know seem to be at odds. :winking_face_with_tongue:

There are so many “indicators” out there that one must ignore most of them to concentrate and what makes sense to one’s investing style.

The Captain

Look in the Statement of Additional Information to the prospectus. You’ll see a lot of ways that they can pay higher brokerage fees on transactions (if deemed in the interest of fund shareholders), and they’re allowed to self-deal with Fidelitys trading desk.

As long as the fund’s turnover ratio is low (i.e., 1% to 2%) that shouldn’t be a problem.

intercst

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Yes, there is an issue as Fidelity will only allow these funds in Fidelity accounts. This could trigger a forced sale (and capital gains or losses) if you move them to another broker.

This is why all my ZERO funds are in my IRA, where any withdrawal is taxed as ordinary income (with the exception of QCDs you choose to make).

It’s entirely intercst’s fault that I pay withdrawals at ordinary income because he didn’t learn me fast enough about the benefits of a Roth. Shame on him. :face_with_monocle:

Unfortunately that is the trend in the industry. More and more firms are using a low(er) cost proprietary index fund that can only be held in their own account.

I think it is actually being used as a “loss leader” to make accounts and relationships more sticky - that once you move there, it becomes more difficult to leave without potential tax consequences.

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