Given that Taiwan accounts for roughly 60% of the world’s semiconductors, this probably isn’t off-topic.
China has designs on Taiwan. Xi has made it a priority. But this video assesses the real risk, and it’s very small. Even smaller than I thought. Basically, China can’t do it for a number of reasons. I’ve always been more concerned about them claiming the South China Sea, and therefore the major shipping lanes therein. After this assessment, it’s really the only thing I’m concerned about with regard to China. Taiwan is a no-go for them, unless they want to lose a lot of people and hardware, and still not take the island.
Taiwan Semiconductor is building plants in Japan and Arizona. They are keeping best technology in Taiwan for now but can move quickly if they need to. Yes, the risk is there but they do have a backup plan. Yes, it will be chaos as the industry readjusts. Semis still have a major presence in SE Asia.
OK. But then what was the risk that Japanese militarists would take over parts of China, or Adolph would try to build a world empire by invading Russia, or Hannibal would lose in Africa or the US would upset a relatively stable (if repugnant) regime in Iran, or …
The things about predicting wars is that they are so rarely logical, that things turn out as the planners think, that anybody gets better off afterwards.
Look at how everybody got in to World War I, or how the hotheads in South Carolina started the Civil War, or how we moped our way into Vietnam. I think to have a better chance of predicting the next roll of the ball at the roulette table than listening to people predict “war”.
And North Korea would be delighted to take over South Korea ( w support from China?). We haven’t had that one in the news for a while. Except that N Korea has nukes and is working on missiles (and submarines?).
If this was the US Administration, sure. They’re incompetent idiots, as they prove time and again (latest is Iran, with all the macroeconomic fallout that we are seeing now). Xi is a tyrant, but by contrast to our administration, he’s not an idiot. As the video said (and DrBob’s link also said), Overlord was a piece of cake compared to crossing the Taiwan Strait. And even if you get Chinese troops on the island, they’ll face stiff opposition, difficult terrain, and logistical problems.
While Xi is going to bloviate about taking Taiwan, the real issue for the world is going to be China’s designs on the South China Sea. Somewhere north of $5T of trade pass through there. China controlling that is like Iran controlling the Strait of Hormuz, except probably worse. And that is something China could do with their new navy (which is getting bigger all the time), and their fortified artificial islands.
…and there is a real and utterly sane possibility that China’s threats to Taiwan are now primaily a cover to hide real intentions to enforce total sovereignty over the South China Sea.
