The article below compares the data & opinions on which nation is worse off.
I will paste some key points but one should the article to come to one’s personal decision.
The Western analysts give the edge to the US over China using the following criteria:
Debt quality and productivity matter more than raw ratios.
The property crisis is structural and severe.
Deflation vs. inflation dynamics.
Demographics are dramatically worse.
Reserve currency privilege.
Transparency and data reliability.
An Alternative View:
These arguments, on the surface, appear valid but reflect a Western bias that is a product of arrogance and ignorance. Here are the main biases I see that skew the Western analysis:
Dollar-centric framing.
Confirmation bias in the analyst community. For roughly fifteen years, Western analysts have been predicting an imminent Chinese economic collapse that has not arrived. Having made those predictions publicly, there is professional pressure to continue making them rather than to revise the framework.
Political convenience.
The US debt problem is genuinely uncomfortable to discuss. Interest payments on the US national debt surpassed spending on both Medicare and national defense in fiscal year 2024 — a milestone that would, in any other country, prompt serious discussion of fiscal sustainability. The tendency to focus analytical attention on China’s problems rather than comparably serious US structural issues reflects a form of motivated reasoning.
Is the US on a debt trajectory that is mathematically unsustainable without either significantly higher taxes, significantly lower spending, or financial repression through inflation...???
Let’s assume the US navigates the Iran war & closure of the strait of Hormuz at least in a somewhat neutral short effect upon the US economy.
What happens if one or both of the world’s largest economies flounder? What is the effect the world economy? And what will be the economic effect upon the average Chinese, American citizen?