Choosing Lilies

In Texas, on Highway 7 between Center and and Nacogdoches there is a farm. The Lily Farm.

I went there one weekend before Mothers Day. The idea, “Why buy something that we be, and then be gone, when I can buy something that will last and last. (And I can get a bulb off of later.)”

I needed two bulbs. They gave me 8 flags and pointed by toward the 20 dollar rows. These were shade shelters about 2 foot ball fields long and about 60 feet wide. Each has central path wide enough for a couple of golf carts to pass and short rows of lilies radiating from the central path.

I was instructed to place my flags on the lilies I liked, then go back through and remove 4 flags. Then go back and remove 2 more. The last flags standing would be the ones that I purchased.

For all practical purposes, this was an exercise in relative value. I had a budget, I had to choose what I considered the most valuable. It forced me to choose.

I believe that being 100 percent invested 100 percent of the time IS the secret to Saul’s method. This because Saul’s method is a continuous process of deciding relative value. You simply cannot find relative value if you are trying to gauge against too many things. I can’t stand in the Lily Farm and still contemplate how the lilies I am looking at stack up against the cut flowers at Walmart. If I am going to make a relative value judgement, I have to have first made the judgement that I am there to buy.

I have not implemented Saul’s method, and in fact after studying it more and more, I am thinking of buying an SPX etf and going fishing. As I find my judgement to a poor relative value.

On the other hand, if I do stay involved, and I do attempt to work with Saul’s method, the one thing I will do first is average in and stay 100 percent invested. No cash. Never. I understand that the discipline this imposes is probably the secret sauce.

Qazulight (Never liked flowers until I turned 50)


Many people here have pledged allegiance to the idea of “staying 100% invested no matter what.”

This is easy to say after 7 years of bull market without any serious correction.

“Iron” Mike Tyson once commented that “Everybody has a plan until you get punched in the face…”

One of those days, the market will tank and everybody will have their resolve tested. Until then, it is all talk.