Citron & NVTA--not what you're thinking...

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Citron, led by Andrew Left, is famous for its short call reports. In an interesting turn of events, Left has expressed a strongly bullish position on Invitae (NVTA:

“I am long a lot,” Left told TheStreet, adding that he thinks NVTA could hit $100 a share two years from now. He also said it’s very possible that the company will be acquired before reaching that level.
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“Genetic testing is a mega trend,” Left said. “[It] started with ‘Hey, it’s cute with the 23 and Me,’ but it goes a lot deeper than that. There’s so much more to it.”

He believes the total addressable market for genetic testing “is for everyone on Earth.” Left added that NVTA also has “a ‘big moat,’ and they’re ahead of everyone else. The more data they acquire, the better the testing becomes. Their product gets better with time.”

Left told TheStreet that he’s been long the stock for six or seven months and “I keep buying more.” But while Invitae’s stock price has already more than doubled so far in 2019, the stock popped Wednesday after word of Left’s position hit social media.

You can read the entire article here: https://www.thestreet.com/markets/invitae-shares-rise-after-…

You can read my deep dive on NVTA posted on this board in February here: https://discussion.fool.com/deep-dive-invitae-34140364.aspx

It’s been a wild ride for my position established in February, but overall–as of today–that position is up about 70%. If you do buy shares, you have to first, believe in the business model; second, believe in the “mega-trend” Left references above; and third, be able to stomach share price volatility over a long period of time to see if the promise of Invitae is realized.

That’s a lot of “believing.” So what I have done to date and will continue to do is to keep an eye on the key business metrics (defined in deep dive). If anything goes off the rails in a significant way, the bottom will drop out on this one, IMHO. Not a stock to buy and ignore, by any means…If you’re looking to build a position, you may want to consider the history of price volatility and figure out how to use it in your favor.

Best, Swift…
Long NVTA

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He (I’m stretching a little to even use a human term to refer to someone like Andrew Left) may be right, but I will say I’ve made really good profits doing exactly the opposite as him. NVDA, SHOP and others.

Citron is notorious for their legendary mixed-message pseudo-information pandering, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s got options on the other side of NVTA that win after a run-up that doesn’t sustain itself. I’m pretty sure he did that with most others – short options win on the fear selling, then he buys the shares or call options on the cheap and captures the second win when the company actually does well despite his fear-mongering.

Best of luck in either case, just be careful with any stock that has Citron’s attention. It baffles me why people pay him any attention, but because they do, you have to pay close attention and do the extra due diligence.

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Haha, yes, Hygrail. I’m with you. I’ve done REALLY well taking the opposite side of a couple of Citron shorts as well.

I just thought it was kind of notable that Left came out with a positive recommendation for once! And that rec seems to have moved the share price up nicely over the last two trading days.

I certainly would not jump into or out of this or any stock based on one analyst’s viewpoint. I am actually skeptical of all recommendations–I give do however give equal consideration to the bulls and the bears (i.e. none, lol!). For my primary portfolio, I do my own research focused on company SEC filings --quarterly and annual reports-- company conference calls, markets and competition, etc. And there are certain analysts at the Fool (David Gardner, Karl Theil, Rick Munariz to name a few) who I have come to trust based on their excellent, documented performance over a long period of time.

My reasons for investing in NVTA are clearly laid out in the deep dive I linked–with all of the caveats therein, as well.

Best, Swift…
Long NVTA

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