Cloudera 4th quarter results

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cloudera-reports-fourth-quart…

Stock is currently down about 14% after hours.

I know it doesn’t fit into the parameters of a Saul stock, but this is a dirt cheap company growing at 20% plus a year going forward.

Call me crazy to buy NTNX at 33.20 and double crazy to buy CLDR just now at 12.40.

I have room for some of these very unpopular teens not getting invited to the prom, but many of them turn out to be pretty successful later on in life.

Chris

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I have room for some of these very unpopular teens not getting invited to the prom, but many of them turn out to be pretty successful later on in life.

The market is saying otherwise. But good luck. If you think you know something the market doesn’t, maybe you’re being quite smart. Otherwise, these things tend to go poorly.

I’m speaking from experience. HDP, which CLDR acquired, looked extremely cheap for a couple years. But it never went up. That makes me question CLDR’s competitive advantage. If Hadoop and the like are dying, what’s the bright future for CLDR? Same with TLND.

But as I said, good luck.

Bear

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I have to agree that I’m also skeptical here of Cloudera and HortonWorks. I don’t think people have found the answer for big data yet, and its a bit of a crapshoot who will find the golden goose. In the meantime, I find it concerning that the best thing the CEOs of Cloudera and HortonWorks could think to do is merge, in order to reduce competition and acquire each other’s revenue. This isn’t the behaviour of a company that has found its market fit.

Still they could succeed - no one is standing still, and they know more about Big Data than most other players - they just have to find the key. They need something that gives business people the right question, not just the right answer.

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Well we shall see.

I’m already in all the same stocks you guys are in.

I’m in my highest earning years right now and have cash coming in every month that I need to deploy.

Part of that cash is looking for opportunities in other companies besides the red hot niche list that we are all too familiar with. Hey I am still holding very large core positions in AAPL, AMZN and NFLX that I’ve held for many many years. I know stupid. I should have sold 400% ago. :wink:

In the last month I’ve bought TLND at 37 and now out at 46 and 48. Bought NTNX at 33.20 after their earnings report. CDLR may or may not work out.

It would be much easier trust me to say I loaded up on GH at 60 and added to and made MDB my biggest holding at 90, that all my trades go perfect and I’m up 55% YTD, but I didn’t and I’m not. I am up
34% though thanks to this board, but also believe it or not names like OKE, NFLX and ANET. Yes there are other compnaies that are doing very well YTD.

Thanks for the imput though. Always appreciated.

Chris

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… have cash coming in every month that I need to deploy

An important lesson I hope I have learnt in recent years is not to invest/deploy money for the sake of it. I am hopefully learning to invest with conviction when opportunities and investment theses are identified. Don’t let it burn a hole in your pocket! That’s how I end up with 3rd and 4th choice companies in my portfolio that I thought were cheap at the time

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Hi Chris,
CLDR with a 25% organic growth expectation given by management is one I just made a 4% position.
This quarter, during the merger, CLDR has ARR increasing 25% and large user count increasing 9%. It’s Margins are expanding and the company is forecasting that its free cash flow margin will reach 15% in fiscal 2021 ’.
CLDR is forecasting an adjusted share count of 279 million and at the share price of $12.50 (dropped 15% last night- IMO due to maerger related accounting confusing analysts and algorithms), the company’s market cap is $3.5 billion and its enterprise value is $3 billion. Using the GAAP revenue forecast of $855 million yields an EV/S of 3.5X. Using a pro-forma revenue forecast of the EV/S would be 3.25 and adding back the assumed dis-synergies, from this merger would take the EV/S to 3.
I agree with Steppenwolf that the Big Data solutions are not being provided yet. Enterprise needs not just solutions but ‘questions’. IMO CLDR has a good chance at winning in these early innings.

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Willo,
Agreed. From the information I’ve gathered it’s of the opinion from a source I believe in that the analysists were too lazy to read through the transcript and understand the actual numbers they reported. Or maybe management didn’t explain it correctly on the conference call.

I will double up my position most likely Monday.

Just like NTNX, ANET and TLND, if you can pick these companies up at a good enough discount, you can do quite well in my opinion.

Market then out ANET for example and I was more then happy to own the stock at 200 this past December.

Realizing though that this board is only about finding stocks in hyper growth mode like MDB, and much appreciated for having the analysis going on in here with people that know what the heck they are talking about.

I guess I’m just from a different time, when 25% growth was something to be proud of. :wink:

Chris

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Hi Chris,

Per ‘Realizing though that this board is only about finding stocks in hyper growth mode like MDB, and much appreciated for having the analysis going on in here with people that know what the heck they are talking about.’

I think the predisposition here is not just hyper growth, cause like you said 25% organic in and around a merger is pretty amazing. The momentum of the digitalization of everything and the associated companies isn’t enough. The momentum in quarterly numbers is also a prerequisite to fit with this board. It is a little confusing though cause I think this company has a real shot at retuning to hypergrowth. The majority of earnings were unrelated to Hadoop. The solutions offered outside of Hadoop related solutions, which do remain, are what’s growing CLDR going forward.

Anyway, just wanted to support you here a little and I’ll leave it there.

Best,
Jason

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