Here is a good article from Wells Fargo Economics showing a pullback of consumer discretionary spending in services and a pull-forward in goods. They are concerned because consumers have shifted their behavior in the wake of tariffs.
Discretionary services spending has declined. On a year-over-year basis, discretionary services spending is down 0.3% through May. That is admittedly a modest decline, but what makes it scary is that in 60+ years, this measure has only declined either during or immediately after recessions.
Coupled with today’s inflation numbers the trend is toward stagflation.
Wendy