Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level in years

[Hawkwin]

@Hawkwin

Keep in mind that consumer sentiment, especially on the downside, is strongly contraindicated with market performance.

Some thread necromancy here:

Consumer Sentiment just hit a new ATL (all-time low).

Consumer sentiment falls to record low. Is spending at risk?

The war in Iran is the tail that wags the dog so I DO NOT necessarily see this as a strong buy signal. We could be even lower next month if this “pause” does not become a real cease fire.

Also:

@Hawkwin

@mostlylong

Do you think that (30% over some time horizon) applies now?

From the April low, ya. If we are measuring from a May low, not likely - but again, it is an average.

The S&P 500 surged nearly 39% on a total-return basis from the April 2025 low through the end of that year.