The CAPE ratio has structural limitations and is only truly meaningful in market extremes. Instead of relying solely on CAPE, I encourage you to focus on forward-looking indicators. Key signs pointing to potential growth over the next two to three years include projected forward earnings growth and a shift in CEO sentiment from negative to positive. Historically, this positive shift, especially when combined with the start of a Fed interest rate cutting cycle, signals a period of economic expansion.
Oil prices are low and not high. 
Actually housing is pretty bad, if you just look at housing by itself, it is recessionary. Will the interest rate cut spur housing, and will it become a ‘tailwind’ instead of ‘headwind’??
Actually I view USD is declining, Trade ideas on declining dollar
This is true and the private credit industry is working very hard to make them part of your 401 (k), which is supposed to be a long holding unlike public markets. So just be aware of what your target date funds hold.
I am not expecting a freeze on private credit will/ may have cascading effect, as someone who needs money and cannot access their private credit funds, may end up selling their publicly tradable assets like stocks, or Bitcoin. Hopefully, not every investor will try to exit at the same time, if they are, there has to be a bigger shock to the system.
This is concerning. This is a too good of an opportunity to implement some extreme agenda for Trump. It is not coincidental the national guard deployment in Oregon, Chicago, etc. This is a well established pattern to create multiple crisis, and diluting opposition energy to concentrate their fight on any one issue. Set aside the politics, but longer the shutdown drags, and given Trump’s natural instinct is to unleash chaos, the markets may hit “air pocket”.
I have scaled few positions last week. I was originally planning to push ‘booking profits to 2026’ for tax purposes, now I am debating either to book profits or buy hedges and in the meantime… look below my trading portfolio performance, which is making me pause, because the more cash I raise, I miss out on the potential profits…
The point here is not about me, but I expect many folks are in the same camp, and holding tight and watching nervously… some big players could get out in hurry, that is another potential “air pocket”.
