On cusp of recession?
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It’s noise. Too small to matter and no trend established…yet.
Wendy
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On the other hand…
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May 27.
DB2
1 Like
Yes, the numbers are made up of the events in the market place. Things could not be getting worse.
“We may very well now think better than even odds that we are going to have a recession this year,” he warned.
When Krugman speaks in the 3rd person; you know he is serious. 
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Can anyone explain how “50%
chance of a recession” is calculated?
Even if you tried to calculate this probability with actual recession occurrences in the historical record, it would be very crude because there have not been very many recessions and certainly not many in the last 20-30 years.
We know the economy is slowing. Retail businesses are seeing customers more reluctant to spend. Inflation continues to squeeze their budgets.
Tariffs are a factor in some segments.
Other businesses continue to make their numbers.
Interest rate cuts could help.
It is a stock pickers market. None of this affects my investment decisions. I still buy the best performing stocks I can find.
Krugman is Krugman.
The Captain
…and never the twain shall meet.
Pete
2 Likes
