COVID and Social Security

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I wonder if anyone has done studies on the impact of COVID on the Social Security shortfall.

According to the link below, 1,002,925 people have died of COVID. I used there breakdown and calculated that 746,301 were eligible to be receiving SS benefits. (Actually it was a little more than that but their ranges didn’t allow me to break out the 62-64 year olds.) We know that some of the 750K would have died of other causes, but I think it is safe to say that the majority wouldn’t have. Have those and the continuing deaths from COVID changed the date when SS will have to reduce its payments to recipients?

There are many complicating factors that would have to be taken into account. Here are just a few that I can think of.
How many people have retired earlier than expected and not paying into the SS trust fund any longer?
How many people are claiming SS benefits before their full retirement age thus lowering the amount that SS will pay out over their lifetimes?
How many people are claiming SS disability benefits beyond what is expected?

It wouldn’t be an easy study to do, but it would be interesting.

The promised link: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-…

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I wonder if anyone has done studies on the impact of COVID on the Social Security shortfall.

There are some 70 million people receiving payments. A decrease of, say, 500K would be a less than 1% difference. Certainly not a first-order effect.

DB2

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“How many people are claiming SS benefits before their full retirement age thus lowering the amount that SS will pay out over their lifetimes?”

It matters not. The government plan has always been to pay the exact same amount to the ‘pool of individuals’ whether they retire early or late or at Full Retirement age.

The amount of money is based upon ‘actual expected years of life’. Retire early - and the odds are you will die at age X. Retire later, and you’ll still die at age X, collecting exactly the same amount.

It’s only those who beat the odds and live longer than X who get to collect more money. Half will be dead by age X. A good percentage long before age X. Overall, the gov’t could care less. The ‘average’ is the same.

You only break even (no matter when you retire) when you reach age X.

Currently , if you LIVE to age 65, the expected life is another 18 years. or about 83)

At 70, if you make it to that age , it’s 14.5 years. (or about 84 and a half) - survivor bias.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

If you survive to age 80… the average expected years left are 8.5. Of course, many won’t make 80.

(leading causes of early death according to Dr G Medical Examiner - SMOKING #1, Alcohol, DRUGS #3, Obesity #4. )

Excellent video on how to not die early

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0UYXUqKW6g

There’s a daily show of Dr G Medical examiner looking at various cases… on True Crime Network…on cable…

She also wrote excellent book ‘How Not to Die Early’…

t.

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iirc, I saw a piece on the wire several weeks ago that the SS actuary had run the numbers and the old age pension trust fund projected to last a year longer than previously projected.

Of course, the current rate of inflation will erode that significantly, as, unlike most working people, we geezers have an income stream that has a COLA adjustment. Most working people saw that adjustment taken away decades ago.

Steve

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