CPI report today

Not a surprise, really.

March Inflation Tops Forecasts; Yields Gain and Futures Fall


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What IS a surprise to me is just how much the public and the market over reacts to reality being 0.1% higher than the forecast.

Imagine if we did that for the daily temperature?


Or the daily media “severe weather” hysteria, that usually never happens. The forecast on Monday night, for Tuesday in Motown was thunderstorms and hail. We had a sunny, 75 degree, day.


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I think in this case, they (“the market”) is more perturbed over the fact that January was higher than expected (and explained away by “annual adjustments”), and February was higher than expected (explained away by “it’s only one month”), and now March is also higher than expected. Apparently they think that 3 months in a row is somewhat meaningful (it probably isn’t) and that it’ll cause the Fed to not hand out the candy they want (rate cuts) anytime soon. It’ll be interesting to see that chart of expected Fed rates through the end of the year change over the next few weeks (as CPI filters through, and as PPI and PCE are released).

They shouldn’t have been surprised, but I think the concern is more about the direction of the change rather than the magnitude.


No need to wait, June spiked 30% today. We went from the market having 50/50 odds of a June reduction to now 80% odds of the rates staying the same.

Even the July forecast (and my prior prediction of a rate cut) now shows 55% chance of no rate change - up from about 25%.

Florida has really screwed up its housing market. DeSantis was not paying any attention to the state’s economy.

Inflation in reality is not high.

Inflation is reality is not higher than expected.

Perhaps Ron DeSantis could actually begin to do something about inflation in Florida.

What has happened there?


The influx of people are retirees bidding up property values. There is not enough housing. Shelter is the lion’s share of the inflation for months now. Gasoline this time matters but not as much as shelter.

Insurance costs are outrageous in Florida. The rise in property values has worsened that.


Bob in Texas the state is permitting to meet the demand in housing.

"Higher mortgage rates deterred some buyers in 2023, but even so, the overall median price of homes in Texas saw only a slight decline, 1.4 percent, compared to 2022, with the majority of metro areas seeing slight median price increases.Mar 13, 2024

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Bob Florida is way out ahead of all the other states in shelter inflation.

Shelter inflation is starting to show signs of easing, with the year-over-year reading dropping to 5.7% from the March 2023 high of 8.2%. Still, shelter inflation was responsible for 60% of March’s total monthly increase, driven primarily by rising rents and owners’ equivalent rent.

CA 75750 buildings
FL 71900 buildings

CA is approaching twice the population of Florida.

With just over 39 million people (according to July 2023 Department of Finance estimates), California is the nation’s most populous state —its population is much larger than that of second-place Texas (31 million) and third-place Florida (23 million).

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