skudrun -
Good writeup. I agree 100% with the trends you point out.
I am personally putting a minimum expectation on CRWD of a $387M in revenue 6% beat
Unfortunately, I’m not as optimistic about your 6% beat though I’d love to see it. Below is CRWD’s entire guide and beat history (1Q20 is so low because it was a preliminary estimate given just before IPO with much more insight behind it):
Est: top end guide
Act: actual result
+/-: raw $ beat
Beat: % beat
Seq: sequential revenue add
QoQ: QoQ growth
Est Act +/- Beat Seq QoQ
4Q19 $80.46 $14.08 21.2%
1Q20 $95.70 $96.08 $0.38 0.4% $15.62 19.4%
2Q20 $104.00 $108.11 $4.11 4.0% $12.03 12.5%
3Q20 $119.50 $125.12 $5.62 4.7% $17.01 15.7%
4Q20 $138.60 $152.11 $13.51 9.7% $26.99 21.6%
1Q21 $167.60 $178.08 $10.48 6.3% $25.97 17.1%
2Q21 $190.30 $198.97 $8.67 4.6% $20.89 11.7%
3Q21 $215.00 $232.46 $17.46 8.1% $33.49 16.8%
4Q21 $250.50 $264.93 $14.43 5.8% $32.47 14.0%
1Q22 $292.10 $302.84 $10.74 3.7% $37.91 14.3%
2Q22 $324.40 $337.69 $13.29 4.1% $34.85 11.5%
3Q22 $365.30 $380.00 $14.70 4.0% $42.31 12.5%
As you can see, I’m anticipating $380 and a 4% beat of the top end $365.3M guide. That would also mean more than $42M in sequential dollars added, which would be CRWD’s best ever by a considerable amount. That’s one of the difficulties in maintaining growth at this scale.
In my opinion, a 6% beat wouldn’t qualify as an expectation but rather an upside surprise. Management’s guiding history just doesn’t support it. I would guess the market feels similarly. I also think we’d see a decent rise with a 6% beat since it would likely lead to a higher than expected guide as well (I’m looking for something around $410M).
I hope you’re right.